Two of the Big Ten’s best programs meet in Bloomington for a critical battle. Wisconsin comes into this game undefeated and perhaps one of the best offensive teams in America. They bring the Bo Ryan style to play, but have combined that this season with a trio of special guards who can stroke from deep so well that they have as good of offensive metrics as Ryan has ever produced.
The Badgers have dismantled the likes of St. John’s, Florida, Green Bay, St. Louis, West Virginia, Virginia, Marquette, Iowa and Illinois en route to their 16-0 start. They are second in turnover efficiency thanks to the emergence of Traevon Jackson, an elite level point guard who is as steady as they come.
Jackson has proven quite effective at creating open shots for teammates, but the natural flow of Ryan’s offense already does that. Defensive assignments are difficult to assess given the plethora of options Jackson and Ryan have to work with thanks to two dynamic young forwards in Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes.
Tom Crean’s Hoosiers are, on the other hand, a limited offensive bunch. Their inconsistency at point guard is a major issue in generating quality possessions. This is a good bunch of athletes who enjoy playing up tempo, but they lack the firepower here to keep pace with the Badgers.
What they will have going for them is some serious inside talent in the form of Noah Vonleh. The 6’10 freshman has proven incredibly strong on the interior thus far, posting double figure scoring outputs in three of his last four games. The Penn State win on Saturday was dominated by Vonleh’s presence inside which, in turn, created spacing for the rest of the Hoosiers.
Evan Gordon, a fellow freshman, has also seen an increase in minutes recently, thus providing more perimeter scoring for this group. Both he and Will Sheehy are capable of doing damage from the outside or mid-range, and so this team is becoming more balanced offensively, although it has been a slow process.
The biggest benefit to them here is Vonleh and their other inside options. Wisconsin has no one athletically gifted enough to handle Vonleh inside. Frank Kaminsky has had an unbelievable breakout year, but he has had to face few athletes with the capabilities Vonleh has.
Indiana also likes to play up tempo, something which could be problematic for Wisconsin. I don’t put much stock into that, however. The Hoosier turnover metrics are not efficient enough to allow a pace differential to affect the spread all that much.
Wisconsin did beat a special Indiana team on this very floor one year ago as ten point road dogs, however. The idea of revenge will be preached by Crean and the fans leading up to this one, and it should prove motivational.
That being said, the Badgers deserve to be a 4-4.5 point favorite for this one, but I do think they’ll struggle to dominate here. The Hoosiers have a young but emerging defense, and if they can force Wisconsin into a mediocre shooting night, they could hang around long enough to steal this one.
I do not expect Ryan to allow his team to overlook this game, but something must be said for the fact that they come off Iowa and Illinois (both at home) prior to this game. Dates with Michigan and Minnesota follow as well, and so this is a good position for the Badgers to, if nothing else, receive a scare from a team that will hold some interesting advantages against them. That being said, I don’t true the Hoosiers enough offensively here to bite on them given the fact they are getting less than five.
