The Demon Deacons, who had started conference play at 4-3, will try to end a five game losing streak (both SU and ATS) when they play Maryland on Tuesday night. The Terps have been highly competitive in recent weeks, having won four of five against the number, including their last two as favorites.
Maryland was extremely impressive at Duke, coming a few unlucky bounces away from pulling a massive upset as 13 point road dogs. They grabbed 17 offensive boards in that game and hustled the Blue Devils down low. They also held Duke to just 5-24 shooting from deep, although that seemed to have more to do with Duke missing quality opportunities as opposed to Maryland doing anything all that special.
The Terps rank 235 in three point field goal percentage defensively, but they do have a strong defense overall, ranking 52 in efficiency on that end. They welcome in a Wake Forest offense that has been mediocre all season, but their challenges in this game will be a bit different from what they saw against Duke.
Wake is one of the least reliant perimeter offenses in the conferences, and the one thing they do well is get to the free throw line. Their free throw percentages are actually putrid, but it nonetheless spells an interesting style change for which the Terps will have to prep for quickly as Wake is much more adept at getting to the rim with the ball as opposed to settling for outside chances.
Wake has been bad in conference play when it comes to defending the glass on both ends, a factor which concerns Demon Deacon fans entering this game. They have a few sizable, yet young bodies inside who possess talent and athleticism. But, their penchant to play zone has left them susceptible at times to good defensive rebounding techniques.
They do rank 21st in defending the three point shot nationally, but their ability to stretch the zone to the perimeter has left them vulnerable on the defensive glass. Moreover, playing zone against Maryland could be a tricky proposition as they have two guys in Evan Smotrycz and Jake Layman who are effective contributors against zone looks. Wake will need to be aware of them and make it a point to negate their effectiveness.
Wake has really lost control of what looked to be a promising season and their inefficiencies offensively along with concerns on the defensive boards make them a tough squad to back right now. Still, this is a young roster with a good coach, and that should enable them to continue to play hard. Additionally, Maryland has not seen them yet this season.
I find this to be a difficult situational spot for the Terps as they put everything they had into that Duke game (just watch Mark Turgeon jumping up and down at the end of it). Maryland has really come on in recent weeks, elevating their RPI and putting themselves in position to potentially challenge for an at large, NCAA tournament bid.
But, what goes up must come down and I expect their stock value to decline a bit here. I had them as 7-8 point favorites in this game, but they are laying 11 to a Wake Forest team that has enough pure athleticism to compete with them.
I will take the full 11 here and also look to play the Demon Deacons in the first half at any number exceeding 5.5. Maryland has to play Syracuse at home next Monday and, if there is a game won their schedule that they will likely overlook, it should be this one as it sets up almost perfectly as a situational play on Wake.
Wake +11 and 1H
