The classic that was Duke – Syracuse on Saturday night is the type of event that takes a while to get out of your system. Particularly for players, coming off a game such as that can be a difficult task, and that is exactly what Duke will try to do when they take on traditional ACC foe Wake Forest on Tuesday night.
Syracuse struggled at times with a weak Notre Dame squad Monday, testimony to the fact that the “hangover” theory was in full effect. Duke welcomes a Demon Deacons squad much less potent on the offensive end into Cameron Indoor in this one, but they will still likely hear a lot about not having a letdown if their legendary coach has anything to say about it.
Wake is an interesting club. They began the year 10-2 and then they schedule began to heat up. They sit at 4-5 in conference play and have lost three of their last four overall on the road. They are a decent defensive group with good athleticism at the wing and forward positions, but their offense has been brutal at times.
They struggled to score during a home win against Notre Dame two Saturdays ago and were mystified by the Syracuse zone like so many other groups before them. Their loss to Georgia Tech was most closely related to a defense that surrendered 79 points to one of the weaker offensive groups in the conference.
Wake opens as 18 point dogs for this game, and that number is in line with advanced data. That opening spread has been purchased down to 17.5 on some sites, but it is still quite elevated and a certain amount of consideration should at least be afforded to the home dog.
But while I would love to fade Duke given the circumstance with which they enter this game, it’s a very tricky spot. Leading scorer Codi Miller-McIntyre is an unknown for this game after suffering an injury at the end of the first half against Georgia Tech.
Wake is not a good three point shooting team and they do rely on dribble penetration which is typically a huge help in breaking down Duke’s defense. But Miller-McIntrye was the primary scorer in that regard and if he doesn’t play or is limited, it takes away much of their value.
Additionally, Wake is young all over the floor but especially inside. Devin Thomas and Tyler Cavanaugh are going to be good players down the road, but this will be a rare circumstance wherein Duke will actually have an advantage in the front court.
Wake has no real answer for super frosh Jabari Parker, and Amile Jefferson has the length and instincts to give the very raw Thomas some legitimate difficulty.
Additionally, this wake team is not a good enough rebounding group and they did feature some zone looks against the Yellow Jackets. Rebounding out of a zone will be difficult and, more importantly, playing zone against this type of shooting team in Duke could be downright deadly.
The Demon Deacons are an interesting position here given the situational advantages, but this is a tough game for me to pull the trigger on. Should Miller-McIntyre be cleared to go, I’d consider a smaller play on Wake in the first half as Duke should be expected to come out a bit flat. Still, I’m not entirely sure there is enough there with this Wake team for me to bite.
