A battle of two top A-10 clubs will take place in St. Louis on Saturday. The Billikens stand at 9-0 in conference play while VCU trails them ever so slightly at 8-2. Any hope the Rams have of winning the number one seed heading into the tournament hinges upon their ability to go down to Missouri and get a win here in what is the first of two late season match-ups between these clubs.
St. Louis is very methodical, and while their offense has not been great at times this year, their defense is so outstanding that it enhances every other aspect of what they do. Their guards are lightning quick out front and have the ability to stymie this VCU attack from the perimeter.
The Rams are built similarly considering the fact that they too depend on defense to get it done. VCU presses more than St. Louis, but they both look to create transition opportunities. But, as far as the Rams offense goes, they will struggle at the guard spot in this game.
One place they could be able to hold a bit of an advantage is in regards to the inside. 6’9 senior Juvonte Reddic is a tough guard for any team. The Billikens counter with 6’11 center Rob Loe. Loe is a good enough defender to contain Reddic, but it will be a tougher match-up than virtually anything else he has faced this year, especially in conference.
The bigger issue for VCU, however, has been their ability to consistently get Reddic the ball inside. This team can be extremely frustrating on offense as they often settle for bad shots and fail to enter the ball into the post efficiently. VCU ranks only 211 nationally in assists per field goals made, testimony to both a serious lack of a pure point and good passing techniques as a team, collectively.
St. Louis is superb at breaking down angles and generating steals, which could make it incredibly difficult for VCU to score at times in this game. On the flip side, however, is what St. Louis can do on their own offensively in this game. They are a respectable 107 in turnover efficiency themselves, but they do not shoot it well from deep whatsoever.
The one benefit of this game for St. Louis on offense is the fact that they are conversely an excellent passing group. They rank 37 in A/FGM and use a variety of back-cutting and movement without the ball that pressurizes any defense, especially one which is considerably worse in the half court than they are full court.
I like St. Louis here if you can catch them at the right number. VCU will come to play and be motivated without question, but there is a reason they struggled in losing both games against the Billikens a year ago.
When they entered this same venue in February of 2013, Reddic and Treveon Graham were the only adequate scorers in what amounted to a 76-62 loss for the Rams. Their guards were non existent, and I’m not sure there has been any fundamental change on the part of Shaka Smart that would lead me to believe things will change this time around.
I took the Billikens at four when this line first came out and tend to like them at anything less than five, which is mostly gone at this point. I made the spread 5.5, with the belief that, over the course of 40 minutes, the Billiken defense will prove too difficult for VCU’s mediocre offense to break.
St. Louis does everything necessary to negate the strengths of VCU, so long as they continue to protect the ball in this game. Regardless of how VCU fans feel about their “havoc,” I’m thinking it won’t be enough to overcome the consistency of what is the nation’s best defensive unit right now.
STL -4
