A critical A-10 bout will take place tonight in Dayton, Ohio when the Flyers welcome the Rams of VCU for a visit. Both squads have performed well so far this season but are still jostling for position in the conference standings with NCAA title hopes a background thought as well.
VCU is an up tempo group predicated upon defense, and that is quite the opposite of what the Flyers employ. Dayton is 28 in offensive efficiency and averages only a shade over 65 possessions per outing. They move the ball very well and force defenses to defend for the majority of the shot clock, and those are factors which could create problems for the Rams.
Dayton is, however, only 142 in turnover efficiency. While they feature a host of guards who can shoot it and make plays in the paint, they do not have a consummate point man who can facilitate and ensure for quality offensive trips.
That was a major issue for them this past weekend in Richmond when they lost to the Spiders by 9 after holding a four point halftime lead. They netted only 28 second half points and committed over twice as many turnovers as their opponent.
Dayton is beyond solid on the offensive boards, however, and that should play a role here given VCU’s poor metrics in that same category on the defensive end. Outside of Juvonte Reddic, this Rams team does not have a ton of size. If they are forced to play out of the half court in a slower paced game, they should struggle.
Shaka Smart’s squad opened as 1.5-2 point underdogs with the spread elevating to 2.5/3 prior to dropping back down to the 1-1.5 range in the last few hours. Spread bets have been relatively even according to most data sources, with a slight edge being handed to the Flyers.
VCU has at times looked underwhelming when compared to how they took the A-10 by storm last year. This is a difficult game to predict as Dayton has looked good at times but also faltered in going up against quality defenses like Baylor, St. Louis and Richmond this season.
I find little value in this game, but it should be telling as to how the Flyers handle this VCU defense. This is a quality Dayton team that has tremendous offensive versatility. Without having sound point play, however, they could continue to struggle in a conference predicated upon defensive toughness.
