Two SEC hoops programs who define mediocrity will square off when the Commodores of Vanderbilt head to Athens for a date with Georgia.
Vandy has been more or less decimated by personnel changes. Eric McClellan and Josh Henderson were important pieces to their puzzle who both went down to suspension and injury, respectively, in the earlier part of the year.
A 2-5 stretch put a major damper on their season following a reasonably decent start. They sat at 1-4 in conference prior to last Saturday before picking up a much needed win against Texas A&M.
The Aggies had been coming off a loss at Kentucky which saw them get devoured down the stretch late. Their brutal offense did them in as Vanderbilt had just enough in the tank thanks to strong efforts by James Siakam and Kyle Fuller.
Vanderbilt was a team seemingly ready to improve itself prior to all the rotation turnover. While any postseason dreams are likely out the window, they can still savage their season, and picking up a win at Georgia would be a massive step in the right direction.
This spread opens with the Bulldogs as five point favorites. I look at these two teams as being quite similar and felt the number should be more in line with 3.5. But, on closer review, there are some key factors which illustrate the fact that Georgia a slightly better ball club in this match-up.
These two are extremely similar in offensive efficiency (or lack thereof) and pace preference. Georgia has a substantial edge when it comes to depth, however. They feature a plethora of frontline athleticism that could ultimately prove too much for this thin Vandy unit to overcome.
Georgia has six players averaging 3.5 rebounds or more per game and currently grades out at number 36 nationally in offensive rebounding. The defensive boards have been a major weakness for the Commodores, especially given their rotation losses.
Georgia is also good at getting to the free throw line despite being a largely mediocre offense. Only 11 teams get to the line more often than them when compared to overall field goal attempts. While the Commodores have measured up reasonably well in that area, they have been known to allow ball penetration to get to the heart of their defense, and that will be an issue here if it happens again.
There is some value to be had on Vanderbilt at the current number, but they are not a good enough team in general to back as of now. Should this number get higher to the point it exceeds six, backing the dog would present some real potential. as of now, this is simply another SEC game between two teams stuck toward the bottom of the pack.
