Two offensively challenged SEC hoops teams square off in Tuscaloosa tonight with the Commodores of Vanderbilt taking on the Crimson Tide.
‘Bama has been quite mediocre this year but has also played an absolutely brutal schedule. Oklahoma, Duke, Drexel, Wichita, Xavier and UCLA are all quality teams, but the real issue is that the Crimson Tide didn’t beat any one of those teams.
Alabama ranks in the top 50 defensively, but their offensive efficiency comes in 116. They are not good when it comes to turnover efficiency, and they lack reliability when it comes to scoring options. While Trevor Releford is a quality guard and Nick Jacobs a serviceable forward down low, Anthony Grant’s club needs more help if they are going to have success in conference this year.
While Vanderbilt comes off a down 2013, there are some things to be excited about. They have become one of the better defensive units in the nation and feature a nice mix of both experience and young potential at the guard spot.
Vandy also enters this game with some legitimate size down low in the form of 6’10 freshman Damian Jones and 6’11 junior Josh Henderson. Henderson has been a regular for several years now while Jones is just beginning to see a spike in minutes.
The Commodores have been extremely competitive when faced with tasks comparable to the one they will deal with tonight. They have played defensive minded squads such as Butler, Texas and St. Louis and been able to hang around in every spot, even pushing Butler to overtime on the road.
These two teams are insanely even on paper when you really dig deeper. They are both mediocre on the glass, unspectacular on offense and not very deep. Both play slow, although the Crimson Tide grade out as one of the slower teams in America while the Commodores are more middle of the pack.
A 7/7.5 point spread is probably not warranted in a game that could be tight given the implications show by the current tool (126). This number shot up from 124 earlier in the day. Both teams are turnover prone and Bama has been willing to apply pressure in the past.
A more up and down game benefits Grant’s team, but look for Vanderbilt to keep things tight. They have some serious weaknesses, but this Alabama team is in no way built to cover a spread of this magnitude in a tight game.
Vandy has more playmakers at the guard spot and, if they can avoid costly turnovers and shoot the ball a bit better from the line, they could pull the upset here.
Vanderbilt +7.5
