Gambling on sports is often most enjoyable when you pick a team and bet the side. Most fans are more familiar with teams and their tendencies within the scope of given match-ups. Predicting the likelihood for a certain total to play either over or under can be difficult, especially if you don’t know what a given coach or coordinator’s strategy is heading into a specific game.
But in the world of college hoops, there is plenty of money to be made in totals. I have historically struggled to accurately understand full game totals all that well, but in-game wagering has become more and more prominent in recent years within the grand scheme of the overall betting market.
Some sharps wager on games and never watch them, a stark contrast to the degenerate who slams down money just for the sake of creating added interest in a live, televised event.
Sharp or square, if you understand the game and how teams tend to react in certain situations, second half wagering can be extremely beneficial in the college landscape. Professional sports feature regular coaching changes in a carousel that seemingly never ends. Only in the college world can you find a tenured guy like Jim Boehiem or Rick Pitino. Even casual fans understand their tendencies and general beliefs about the game, and those typically don’t change when they are faced with a certain situation.
On Wednesday night, Stanford squared off against number on Arizona on the hardwood. The halftime score was 31-30, with the pregame total having been set at around 130/131. Early on in the game, the pace was very slow and both squads struggled to score in what was a defensive battle.
But the tempo picked up toward the end of the half as both teams connected on some threes and got out in transition a bit more. The flurry of points scored before the half made supporters of the under a bit uneasy, and the second half total was established at 71, a figure which kept it in line with what the pre-game figure originally was.
The second half action was very much dictated by defense. Arizona’s shot blockers were jumping out of the gym and the officials more or less allowed physicality to go unnoticed. Arizona won the second half 30-26 and the under hit with relative ease.
While hindsight is always 20-20, having a feel for the teams was huge for anyone who played that 2H under position. Arizona and Stanford are two of the top 15 defensive teams in America, and the frantic push teams often make when a game opens up in the latter part of the first half tends to disappear when a game conversely tightens up down the stretch, with each and every possession becoming more valuable.
On Thursday, two more games provided excellent examples for our discussion here. Cincinnati wandered into Louisville and grabbed a massive road win. That game saw the Bearcats lead 28-20 at the end of the first half in a slugfest that did not see much up and down action.
Louisville began to press more and more in the latter phases of the first half, and you could start to see the game pick up in pace. The second half total was set at 69.5, making for an adjusted spread of about 117.5, a legitimate decline compared to the pregame figure of 130.5/131.
Sure enough, Pitino and company made sure to bring some pressure to a Cincy rotation that does not have much depth at the point guard position. They also were more aggressive in going toward the basket on offense, and the second half over hit along with the full game over, making for a nerve-free investment if you backed that position.
In other American Athletic Conference action, Houston went up to UConn and got absolutely blasted, 80-43. The Huskies had revenge on their minds stemming from a loss down in Texas a few weeks back, and they took it out on the young Cougars during a first half which saw them head to the locker room with a 51-22 lead.
The pregame total had been set at 140.5/141. With 73 points scored and a complete blowout in place, odds-makers apparently felt like the scoring would continue. Often times in a blowout, the winning team can become conservative in their defensive approach, and if the team coming from behind still feels like they have a shot, you will see an up and down game in which the total simply gets blown out of the water.
But the Huskies have excellent guard play in Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright. They do not turn it over, and that was again the case last night. Kevin Ollie saw his team build a 30 point lead and didn’t want to run up a ridiculous score that would have received media attention and provided bulletin board material for the future.
He had his point men work the ball on offense and use up the shot clock. Additionally, their defense held up against a very pedestrian Houston offense, and the end game score amounted to a total barely in excess of 120.
The second half total had been set at 73.5/74/74.5 depending on book. That amounted to a 5-6 point adjustment over the initial total, but if you actually watched the game and Houston’s shortcomings on offense in the first half, you knew that game wasn’t getting anywhere close to 147/148.
These are just a few examples of how a game or situation can play out, and making monetary decisions in a quick amount of time regarding college kids playing a game is never an easy thing.
Still, you can learn a lot from the first halves of many of these games. Coaches, players and general trends don’t typically change too much over time, and it can often be relatively easy to figure out how a group might respond to what just happened to them when they take the court in the second half.
Also, there is more math that goes into these numbers than what has been discussed here. Professionals doing this for a living break down possessions and consider turnover and offensive rebound rates to come up with an appropriately handicapped, in-game adjustment.
It’s more difficult than it appears on the surface, but if you watch the game and have a true understanding for it, you can make a lot of money off your eyes and your knowledge.
We here at the Philly Godfather are always trying to help a gambler beat the books, and one way to do it this CBB season is to watch the game and trust in yourself and your instinct. It can go a long way.
