One surefire way of making money while betting hoops in a selective manner is to pick your spots when it comes to elite teams. We recently saw Iowa State, Ohio State and Wisconsin all falter after getting out to ridiculous starts.
The simple fact of the matter is this: It’s hard for these teams to keep winning. For as good as the Orange have looked this year, the fact that they are 18-0 is simply something that cannot last. They have played three true road games against St. John’s, Va Tech and B.C..
They won all three games, but Saturday’s scrum with Miami will be both a challenge and a re-match. I watched much of the first meeting between these two and was quite impressed with what the Canes had to offer.
Let’s not beat around the bush here: Miami is not a good offensive team. If you want to fact enjoyable basketball during this Saturday, I would not recommend tuning in to this game regardless of weather or not you have dough on it.
But Miami has athleticism, length and defensive toughness that provides a definite offset to the traits that make Syracuse so tough. The Orange needed a late 17-9 run in the final eight minutes of that game to get the win at home, and so they should be focused when they head to Coral Gables here.
Miami only put up 44 points in that first meeting, 21 of which came on three pointers. They shot a shade below 50% from deep, and that is the scary proposition about backing them here: they are not a good 3P shooting club by nature. That first game was a bit of an anomaly, although the length of their guards does enable them to get good looks at the basket again a zone many teams struggle with the first time around.
But the most attractive aspect about the Canes in this spot is what they can do defensively. The Orange looked completely lost for much of that first game, They played patiently and waited for things to open up. Freshman sensation Tyler Ennis was the steady hand they needed as he scored ten points, dished out seven assists and only gave up two turnovers.
Probability says Miami will not shoot that well again and that Trevor Cooney will likely improve upon a 2-12 three point performance which saw him put forth his least efficient game all season.
But logic also says that this Hurricanes team is perfectly suited to battle Syracuse on the glass. A huge chunk of what Syracuse does offensively comes down to the fact that they are a top ten team in terms of offensive rebounding. Miami neutralized them for the most part of the first match-up until the very end, and I’d expect them to compete again here.
Additionally, this game is more so about what Miami can do in terms of pace. Syracuse actually scored one point per possession in the first go around, but it looked ugly to the viewer because of how slow the game was. Should the re-match duplicate such tempo, it’ll be increasingly difficult for Syracuse to cover the given number of 6.5.
The ‘Canes looked weak in getting hammered at home against Duke the other night. Amile Jefferson had an outstanding performance in that game and the Blue Devil guards are slowly growing up before our eyes. But perception is everything, and there might not be a better time to back the ‘Canes regardless of how awful they looked.
Jim Larranaga has been solid both as a dog and in games coming off a loss. This team is nothing to write home about, but this spread should be closer to 4.5/5 than the current number, and the fact that roughly 85% of spread wagers are coming in on the road favorite is enough for me to bite.
Miami +6.5
