The Blazers opened the season 11-3 overall but have dropped their last three and sunk to 3-6 in conference play. Outside of two recent losses at home to ECU and UTEP, they have been strong at their home arena and will look to send a harsh welcome to the Golden Eagles of Southern Miss.
Donnie Tyndall’s team is incredibly balanced and solid on the boards. They are mediocre from deep but they attack the basket very well and get to the line as much as almost anyone nationally. UAB counters with a defense built on length and versatility and they rank 8th nationally in preventing the opposition from getting to the line.
But their ability to win outright as 4.5 point dogs at home hinges upon an offense that has struggled considerably despite playing a slew of weaker defensive groups recently. They are one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to effective FG% and each of their three previous opponents ranks very poorly when it comes to defensive efficiency.
UAB is a middle of the pack group when it comes to desired tempo, yet each of those three previous losses played to possession totals up in the 70 range. Southern Miss is a slow it down sort of group as well and that should benefit the Blazers here as they won’t have to run and gun as much. That, additionally, is also a reason this spread is not significantly greater than 4.5.
For Southern Miss, this game comes right before an interesting trip to Middle Tennessee State and offers them a chance to get to 9-1 in conference play. While they have been strong thus far this year, their one achilles heel has been turnovers, although it is unlikely that this UAB team, given their defensive makeup and overall metrics thus far this season, will be able to take advantage of that.
One key to this game will be the play of C.J. Washington. The 6’8 junior is the third leading scorer for this UAB squad and a critical piece to their offense. Southern Miss is excellent defensively , but somewhat susceptible when it comes to defending the post as they do not have a great amount of size. They make up for that with quick and timely double teams, and so Washington has to make it a point to go quickly when he gets the ball down low.
Washington, an Oklahoma transfer, also has to stay away from settling for perimeter looks as this has been another problem for him at times. He attempted six and four threes against ECU and FIU, respectively, but that will not suffice here.
UAB has the talent and skill set at certain positions to keep this game tight. Southern Miss is not a good enough offensive group to pull away easily here, which should enable this spread to remain relevant. At the same time, I do not believe the blazers have the depth and mental toughness to pull off a win in this scenario. They need an enormous game from their interior pieces to get it done, and I’m just not certain those guys are ready yet.
This match-up does provide Southern Miss yet another quality road opportunity to flex their muscles. this team is slowly but surely inching its way toward and NCAA berth and they have the ability to mix things up in the tournament.
But they do lack some key pieces down low and they need to finish this season strong to ensure they get in. I look for an intriguing game down in Birmingham on Thursday, but do not intend to play it given the point spread provided.
