The Aztecs are making a strong push toward a number one seed despite playing in a significantly weaker Mountain West than we have seen in recent years. But they need to continue on the undefeated path for it to ever come to fruition, and Tuesday will provide an interesting challenge.
Wyoming isn’t exactly going to be cutting down any nets any time soon, but they are a formidable conference opponent capable of playing the Aztecs style. Wyoming has played two overtime bouts with New Mexico and also pushed Colorado to the limit on the road back in November when Spencer Dinwiddie was completely healthy.
They feature a top 50 defense and are one of the more consistent 2P shooting groups in the nation. Larry Nance provides them a 6’8 forward worth watching and they have a nice blend of experience and youth in what is Larry Shyatt’s third season at the helm in Laramie.
The issue with this match-up for them is that San Diego counters with a better and deeper front court and they will be extremely comfortable playing at the tempo Wyoming likes. Boise proved last week that, in order to have a chance against this Aztec team, you have to score in chunks and try to out-do them on the offensive end.
Wyoming is also a relatively weak rebounding group. They are one of the worst offensive rebounding groups in the nation and are barely above average on the defensive end. That won’t suffice in this game given what SDSU has inside.
This team is also very mediocre when it comes to turnover efficiency. There is a lot to like about a home dog going up against a top tier and undefeated program whose luck has to seemingly run out at some point.
But nothing relative to this game makes me feel that the Aztecs should be laying anything less than six. They are likely to command a large portion of spread bets here and that should force odds makers to deliver a number in line with expectations.
The opening figure seems to be four at most service providers. I have some reservations about taking a road favorite in this situation. However, I would look to play SDSU either live or in the second half should they struggle early.
Wyoming’s style is an interesting one with the ability to frustrate most MWC foes, but it will not affect Steve Fischer’s team. They’ll have little trouble outscoring and out rebounding this Wyoming group.
