Two teams with a combined 33-1 record will meet in the Carrier Dome Saturday. Pittsburgh has been quite steady through their first 17 games, with the only blemish coming in an ugly, low scoring affair against Cincinnati which ended with them on the wrong side of a 44-43 score.
These two ball clubs have historically been built quite similarly, although that is not necessarily the case here. Syracuse is not nearly as deep as they have been in year’s past, whereas Pittsburgh still has the same type of depth we have grown accustomed to seeing.
Syracuse still features a massive front line, but Pittsburgh is now a bit different. Seven foot monster Steve Adams is gone, and the Panthers now rely on Talib Zanna down low. Zanna is a menace on the offensive glass, and he is joined by Michael Young at the power forward spot. Still, their front court is less of a focal point now when compared to years past.
But these two teams are triggered most typically by their small forwards. C.J. Fair and Lamar Patterson are both special talents who can score in a variety of ways. Patterson is capable of carrying the Pitt attack by himself at times, but that probably will not work here.
The biggest concern Panther fans have to possess heading into this one is how their offense will handle the length of this zone. Pitt is the 10th most efficient offense in America, but a lot of that success comes from offensive boards which might not be there as much in this one. Syracuse is a mediocre team on the defensive glass, but they undoubtedly have the size to reconcile those issues for one game, and you had better believe their coaches will hammer that home leading up to this one.
Additionally, Pittsburgh is relatively mediocre from three, and their generally smaller lineup could have difficulty in getting quality looks against the size they will see. Their guards, who we will discuss momentarily, are good athletes, but not great scorers.
On the flip side, I’m interested to see how the Syracuse guards (and there are only three of them) will deal with this Pitt defense in the back court. Tyler Ennis has been a true revelation this year and is a major reason why this team is 17-0.
But Ennis has struggled at times. He was pretty average against a weak B.C. defense and has also been stymied by the likes of North Carolina, Miami and St. Johns.
Pitt has tremendous quickness in the back court, but they also have size. Cameron Wright is 6’4 while James Robinson comes in at 6’3. Trevor Cooney has had great opportunities to get open looks thanks to ball movement and penetration, at times, from Ennis.
Ennis could well struggle in going up against these veterans, and that could be a major difference maker in the outcome. It’s incredibly hard to pick against the home team in these sort of rivalries, but there is little question that this spread will be reasonable tight.
I have the Orange as 5.5 point favorites, and Vegas seems to agree with that. If they had even a bit more depth, they would probably be worth a play.
At the same time, I can’t see the Orange taking their first loss at home. This is a team virtually destined to stumble in the coming weeks with road trips to Miami, Wake, Pitt and Duke on tap between now and mid-February.
This should be one of the better games on Saturday, even if it is more low scoring than some fans would prefer. I’d expect a total of something south of 130, with the pace likely being one that results in a true grind. That sort of game makes the points attractive, but I ultimately think this number is fair.
