The Ducks and the Utes will square off for the first time this year to kick off Pac-12 conference play tonight. Oregon is currently listed as a 3.5/4 point favorite for this game, and the contest should provide a good barometer for where both teams are early in this season.
Oregon comes into this game undefeated at 12-0 and ranked in the top 10. They have only played two games in the last two and a half weeks, including a 100-96 thriller over BYU which came at home and ended in overtime.
Oregon is an impressive roster, but they are still working through some kinks. Developing their rotation in the wake of returns by Ben Carter and Dominic Artis has been more difficult than expected for head coach Dana Altman.
Artis saw his minutes increase to 22 against Morgan State, but there is little question that Johnathan Lloyd is the starter at point. Lloyd is heady, quick and good enough defensively. While Joseph Young and Mike Moser are excellent scorers and Jason Calliste provides serious firepower off the bench, this team is a bit unbalanced.
They do rank third in effective field goal percentage nationally and come in at six in 3P% and 12 in 2P%. They are also one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country and rank 33 in free throw attempts per field goal attempt.
Their success is predicated on offense, and while Utah is only slightly above average in defensive efficiency, this game will be a true test. The Utes took one of the three games when they played a season ago. They took advantage of a dumping Duck team at home to end what had otherwise been a rough season.
While Oregon rolled over them in the Pac 12 tournament, Utah showed impressive improvement toward the end of the year and has carried a ton of momentum into this one. They are 11-1 and hold similar offensive metrics as their opponent here.
More importantly, this team can do a lot to offset the strengths of the Ducks. They are 38 in turnover efficiency and enjoy playing at a significantly slower pace than Oregon (195 versus 28 in terms of adjusted tempo). They also have the size and options inside to neutralize the Ducks on the glass.
Lastly, they rank 57 in defensive FTA/FGA nationally, meaning they do a reasonably decent job at not allowing their opponents to get to the line with regularity.
Utah is a recovering program under Larry Krystowiak. He has them on the upswing, and they will undoubtedly look at this conference opener as a true coming out party for the 2013-2014 season. Oregon has a superior roster with more talent, but I do not feel they warrant being this large of a favorite. I have the Utes as two point dogs in large part because of what they can do with the pace of this game.
Oregon is still working through a lot and is a bit overvalued here just based on their hype. Currently, they are receiving roughly 58% of spread bets, although that number had initially been closer to 70%.
This should be an entertaining game featuring a ton of upcoming talent. Utah has what is needed to keep this close and even win. I’d look for a strong showing from them in their opener and feel they are well worth a play.
Utah +4
