Oklahoma State travels to Waco in search of anything that will provide them momentum as they try to end a six game losing streak. Baylor, on the slip side, comes in winners of two in a row and seem to believe they can salvage their season following a 1-7 stretch which ran through the month of January.
Baylor originally opened at -4/4.5 and the number has since elevated to 5.5 as the public seems to be in full fade mode when it comes to the Cowboys. Baylor looked pretty weak on Saturday despite miraculously covering a 5 point spread in double overtime against Kansas State. Their offense looked horrible against one of the better defensive units in America.
In this match-up, however, there is a ton to like about the Bears. They have a significant size advantage and should be able to control the glass. They also have 2-3 bodies they can throw at Le’Bryan Nash, the only reliable interior option Oklahoma State possesses at this time.
If there is to be a saving grace for the Cowboys tonight, it could stem from the fact that Baylor ranks only 200 when it comes to three point defense and this OSU team is downright deadly from deep. Despite the absence of Marcus Smart, Phil Forte and Markel Brown are two of the better shooters in the conference.
Baylor has had to go zone quite a bit and they may have to do it here again just based on the fact that their sizable lineup could have trouble matching up one on one with OSU. Scott Drew’s club is thin at guard and that factor could allow OSU to play an up tempo style in which they dictate the pace unless Baylor is able to find a way to slow them, something their zone look could help with.
The most disparaging aspect of the apparent downfall these Cowboys have underwent is the fact that their defense has been horrific in the last few weeks. Losing Michael Cobbins has been lost in translation following the Smart incident, which gained a ton of ridiculous media attention.Realistically, the loss of Cobbins significantly hampered their ability to play a free flowing man system with any consistency, and they have been broken down by a variety of opponents since then.
Baylor has really stumbled offensively at times and their lack of a point behind Kenny Cherry has been astonishing. Were Smart to play in this game, I would fully back the idea that Oklahoma State could easily win this game on the road. But, right now, I can’t see it.
While Baylor does come off a tough situation entering this game, Oklahoma State is only two days removed from a nail biting loss to their bitter rival as well. You have to despise siding with a public team but it’s hard to overlook the Bears as they will be desperate.
The current spread offers little value for the Bears, especially when considering the public support they are receiving. Were one able to get this number at 4 or so, it would be a lot better.
Still, I’d look to play Baylor in the first half. I look for an inspired effort from them and believe the momentum carryover from the Kansas State win will enhance their play early on against a team which, in the back of its mind, has to know its season is slipping away.
Baylor -3 1H
