The AFC title game will kick off at 3 PM on Sunday and will undoubtedly be a site to be hold for NFL fans everywhere. The latter title bout, a third round for two of the NFC’s flagship programs, could be just as entertaining in its own unique way.
Since midway through last season it has become quite apparent that the NFC West houses perhaps the two best rosters in all of the NFL. San Francisco and Seattle have built brands that are not only revolutionary to some degree, but also incredibly similar in approach and style.
Both clubs make it a point to own the line of scrimmage, and that mentality should make this game a true slugfest in the manner so many other games between these two have been. Both Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh have instilled a focus and approach for both groups that centers around fundamentals and techniques that many franchises currently ignore.
As is the case with any conference championship (and in particular, one in Seattle), home field has become a major discussion point this week. Many point to the previous two games between these two played at CenturyLink Field as being critical indicators as to just how untouchable the home team is up there.
While Seattle was able to eventually handle New Orleans on Saturday afternoon, it has become alarmingly apparent that they are more than beatable at home. Arizona handed them a loss despite four Carson Palmer picks, and the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs built a 21-0 lead in Seattle before falling apart in the second half.
But the last two games on this field against San Francisco each tell important stories as we head into this one. The week 16 battle during the 2012 season turned on a 90 yard blocked field goal return by Richard Sherman that made the score 21-0 for the home team. While the Seahawks undoubtedly bullied the niners that night, S.F. came into that game fresh off a win on the road in New England the previous week, making for a legitimate letdown spot.
The Seahawks rolled to a 29-3 win in week two this season, but that game also had some interesting takeaways. San Francisco inexplicably attempted a game plan which hinged upon Colin Kaepernick doing virtually everything for them, while Frank Gore received only nine carries during the outing.
S.F. turned it over a whopping five times, yet they had only been down 5-0 at the half. They were sloppy in their approach, and it ultimately cost them.
This analysis is not meant to take anything away from what Seattle is. They are an excellent team that plays the game the right way. They have a running back whom is as physical and aggressive as any in the league. Marshawn Lynch combines with second year quarterback Russell Wilson to provide an incredibly unique offensive attack.
While the Seahawk offense has been good enough to attain a 13-3 record and earn the number one seed in the playoffs, it doesn’t make up for legitimate questions about them coming into this game. They have looked immensely pedestrian at times in the last six weeks, and they might be without the services of Percy Harvin for this one.
Harvin has yet to be cleared to practice thanks to a concussion which may have recurred last Saturday given the fact he took two monster hits in the first half. It was then announced on Friday that he has been ruled out of this game.
Aside from Harvin, Seattle’s leading receivers this year are Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin. Both are good players who definitely belong in this league. But walking into a conference championship with the two of them as your key options has to be a bit disheartening.
Lynch makes this offense go, but the Niners are more than stout against the run. Lynch can have his yards and should help generate lengthy drives which will allow this total to come in at or near the given number of 38. But if Seattle cannot convert in the red zone, a recurring pattern against the Saints, it will not bode well for them.
On the flip side, the Niners come in with a much more interesting offensive attack. While they have struggled at times this season, it should have been expected. Kaepernick is still a young player in this league trying to find his way. Harbaugh’s insistence on making him a pocket passer early in the year hurt them significantly. But, over time, this team found its identity and they now enter this game with tremendous balance.
If you watch highlights from games between these two prior to the three most recent games, you will see how important Frank Gore can be here. While the Seattle defensive line is solid, the Niners have incredible guard play. They are more than capable of running the ball effectively right up the middle behind stud guard Mike Iupati. Alex Boone is no slouch on the right side either, and Jonathan Goodwin provides them a good mentor at center.
Add to it that Seattle is still working through changes to their secondary, and there is cause for concern. They have good depth behind Brandon Browner, but losing a player of his caliber still hurts. It hurts even more when you consider what the niners are now working with.
Anquan Boldin has become a playoff legend in the last two season, yet he is only the third option in this receiving corps. Boldin is a physical asset who struggled in dealing with Sherman in the first game this season. Sherman may well line up again with Boldin here, but the Seahawks have to be very careful with Michael Crabtree.
Crabtree is back from injury and appears to have his wind now. He is a versatile route runner who has Kaepernick’s complete trust. Byron Maxwell is a good young corner who, at 6’1, fits the mold that Seattle wants from the position. But Maxwell could well struggle in a game like this, and he has far less playoff pedigree than either Boldin or Crabtree.
The Niners have all the keys and tools to put things together and make it back to the Super Bowl this season. this will be their third NFC title game in as many seasons. Getting over the hump is as much about seizing the opportunity as it is actually having the talent, and that will be what this game comes down to for the 49ers.
It’s incredibly difficult to pick a road team to come into Seattle and win a game like this, but that’s what I expect to happen here. S.F. has come up short each of the last two years in reaching its ultimate goal. Getting one step closer to that goal with a win in Seattle against a team they despise would be icing on a premature cake if you will.
San Francisco is poised to hold it down here. Seattle has looked great in their own building, but so long as the niners avoid turnovers and do not abandon the run, they have more than enough to outscore the opponent here.
This game will center around defense, but the winner will likely have to put together a big scoring drive at an opportune time. I fully expect the Niners to be that club, and I think this game could very well launch another dynasty in the Bay Area.
49ers +3.5 and ML (+165)
