The Wolfpack have had a entire week off following their 14 point road loss at rival UNC last Saturday. Miami, on the other hand, comes off an overtime thriller against Pitt that they could have easily won. Those scenarios give rise to an intriguing battle down in coral Gambles today.
The ‘Canes are built on defense and the interior of this team is quite tough. N.C. State does not match them in size or length, but T.J. Warren has been a major bright spot in an otherwise mediocre front court. Warren is quick and crafty, but Jim Larranaga’s squad does counter with Donavan Kirk, a 6’9 senior with tremendous wingspan.
While the Miami offense has been weak to say the least, Rion Brown is a major threat from behind the arc and their guard play has been serviceable overall. The young Wolfpack guards are still trying to grow up, but this team does defend the perimeter well.
As long as Mark Gottfried’ club doesn’t get hammered on the glass, they should be okay here. N.C. State is 309 nationally in defensive rebounding and, while Miami is nothing special on the offensive glass, they do have the bodies to make things difficult.
N.C. State needs a big game from center Jordan Vandenburg. The 7’1 senior has shown flashes at times, but he played only ten minutes against UNC and has battled ankle injuries since November. His inconsistency has been a major problem for this club as they have struggled mightily in comparison to the success they had at times during 2013.
Miami incorporates a lot of zone and the Wolfpack have had success against similar 2-3 looks this year. Anthony “Cat” Barber is playing better at the point gourd spot as of late and if he can deliver a solid floor game here, it will go a long way for this club. Miami’s guards are strong defensively, but they have been exposed in certain match-ups.
This spread opened on a few sites at 3.5, but seems to be hanging in the 4.5 range as we head into Saturday. I’ll look to see if an even better number is offered prior to this one kicking off at 2 P.M., but I tend to like Gottfried’s club here from a situational perspective.
Miami is coming off a loss that, should they have won that game, could have altered the course of their entire season. It also forced their key bodies to play big minutes and you have to wonder how fresh they will be.
More importantly than perhaps anything else is the fact they lack the offensive firepower to easily cover a number like 4.5. The Wolfpack are a young club that has a long way to go. Laying money down on them is a risky proposition, but this game is, more than anything else, a fade of the Hurricanes at a number I o not see them equipped to cover.
N.C. State +4.5
