Marshall Henderson and the Rebels of Ole Miss had chances to knock off Kentucky in Lexington earlier this week, but they fell hard in a second half that saw their offense disappear. They will try to rebound from that loss when they come home to take on a Missouri team that could be quite dangerous here.
The Tigers have lost two in a row but they were pretty impressive when they went down to Florida in Gainesville on Tuesday. Their guard play is dynamic and they have a three headed monster at the position that can both shoot it from deep and get it to the rim with effectiveness.
Ole miss is very average when it comes to defending the outside and they also are weak on the defensive boards. That issue is what plagued them the most against John Calipari’s squad. Missouri doesn’t have an ideal front court for exposing that weakness, however. They have a thin unit up front headlined by Tony Criswell, Johnathan Williams and Ryan Rosburg and they really don’t play any other bodies.
Missouri also defends the three well given that they see so much of it in practice everyday. That bodes well here as Ole Miss is dependent on the perimeter look, ranking 94 nationally in 3PA/FGA. Henderson is their go to guy and his presence in the box score is critical to their success at times. 6’3 junior guard Jarvis Summer has been solid this season, coming into this one averaging over 17 PPG to go along with Henderson’s 19.1.
This spread opened at 2.5 with the home team favored and has since moved down to two on most sites with a few 1.5’s out there as well. Spread bets have been divided relatively evenly, and the current spread is quite fair when you consider how these clubs break down. Missouri holds slight advantages in the front court and backcourt, but they also feature far less depth than Rebels and are on the road.
Should the Tigers at any point post at a number something closer to 3 or 3.5, I’d be far more inclined to take the, but there is just limited value on taking a road dog such as Missouri at the number provided. This is a critical game for both clubs and, while the Rebels do come off that Kentucky game, Missouri will be playing its second game on the road following the Florida loss.
