In the opening weekend of bowl season, two California teams will take their act to Las Vegas in an interesting matchup. The Trojans and Bulldogs get set to do battle in what should be one of the best games early on in the schedule.
USC was a seven point favorite prior to the number moving down to 6.5 and then 6 in recent days. We saw them rebound quite nicely following the firing of Lane Kiffin this year. Prior to their season ending loss to UCLA, the Trojans were clicking and utilized a balanced offense to go along with a stout defensive front.
But the issue here is there most recent coaching change. Ed Orgeron has left the program, and that is a crucial detail heading into this one. One could argue that many saw this coming, but it will still be difficult to fully comprehend how Southern Cal players will respond to his absence given how much his presence seemed to have meant to them in the last two months.
Orgeron inspired this group from the minute he took over, and they exhibited new life under his leadership starting with the Arizona win. A program which chooses to axe a beloved interim coach prior to its bowl game is one that could be in for a bit of a letdown especially when in the position of favorite.
A season ago, the Trojans were worked over in the Sun Bowl down in El Paso. Their erratic quarterback play was on full display, and their roster was clearly not interested in playing Georgia Tech in a meaningless game given the preseason hype surrounding the program. Orgeron’s departure combined with the fact that this team could have been playing in a significantly bigger game had they not fallen so hard against UCLA leaves their true psyche a major unknown.
It’s tough to determine how they will respond here, but their opponent is no slouch. Fresno was extremely impressive during much of the regular season and they have a quarterback who might be the most intriguing prospect in the upcoming draft in David Carr. Carr is beyond capable, and should he get going early, it could put added pressure on the Trojan offense to match his productivity. Should Carr enter the NFL on a roster that offers him better line protection than what his brother received a decade ago in Houston, it could spell big things for the younger brother.
Carr’s presence combined with historical data that says larger underdogs are good bets early on in bowl season make Fresno look appealing on the surface, but I can’t back them at their number for one major reason: defense.
This secondary was severely exploited at the hands of Rutgers, San Jose State and Boise State. They have the number 67 pass defense in the nation according to Football Outsiders, and also played a schedule that did not feature any team with the perimeter talent USC brings to the table.
The Trojans have not been great in bowl games over the last decade. But, despite the most recent coaching changes, this is a good team that should probably be a larger favorite if not for the situational question marks surrounding them. They have the line play to get to Carr and they should be able to go point for point with him if their coaching staff is willing to let it fly with Cody Kessler.
A high scoring game is not what USC is accustomed to, nor do they prefer it. Still, they are suited fine for it. This game is a non-play given the factors considered, as I think USC is probably the correct side here if less than seven, but with motivational considerations taking it off the board for me.
