A high tempo SEC showdown is on tap Tuesday when the Wildcats of Kentucky visit Arkansas. The Razorbacks have had a nice start to the year and are one of the deepest and most turnover efficiency clubs in America. Those traits served them well for the better part of 40 minutes against Florida this past Saturday, but they come up short with a two point overtime loss being the end result.
Coming off a loss such as that one will be difficult for this Arkansas team. They are a mostly young group that has played beyond their expectations this season. An 11-2 start has been forgotten in the wake of two recent losses, and stepping up here against one of the nation’s most physically gifted units will be difficult.
Arkansas’ plays at a frenetic pace. While that is not an issue for Kentucky to deal with given their own preference to play up and down, the fact that the Razorbacks guards are excellent at forcing turnovers is something to look out for. Kentucky has only recently received consistent guard play. They turned it over only 11 times in the Louisville game. That win came in Lexington, and I doubt the Razorbacks will offer much comfort in their frenetic home building.
But what Kentucky does have going for it is excellent size, rebounding and post play. Aside from 6’10 Bobby Portis, Arkansas will have a ton of difficulty countering a front line that is downright ridiculous. They will be forced to go with some zone looks here. While Kentucky is far from a quality shooting team, they still have weapons, and what they likely fail to convert could make for second chance points given Arkansas current ranking of 271 in defensive rebounding efficiency.
This would typically be a game I’d stay away from given the legitimacy Arkansas does pose as a budding program. They have talent, athleticism and skill. While they can force turnovers, Kentucky’s guards will be ready for it given some of the defenses they have already played this season.
More importantly, I do not see Arkansas holding up down low or on the glass here. The Razorbacks simply don’t have what they need to handle that part of the game, and it should be worth a considerable amount to the spread. I don’t think a mere one pint is large enough here, and the situational advantages of playing a Razorback team fresh off a demoralizing loss will be key here.
Kentucky -1
