Kansas heads into Iowa State for a much anticipated road spot with the recently defeated Cyclones and Fred Hoiberg. ISU suffered its first loss on Saturday in Norman and must come back from that quite quickly to play this one in their home building.
The spread has opened with the Jayhawks a mere two point road dog, a telling consideration given Kansas’ own struggles to start the year to go along with how good Hoiberg’s group has been at home this season.
The Cyclones have a raucous environment that has proven difficult for virtually every opponent not named Iowa. But they looked a bit sluggish and spent at times during their loss on Saturday. Surprisingly, this is the 23rd best defense in America, yet they were torched agains the Sooners to the tune of 1.12 PPP and 43% shooting from beyond the arc.
Oklahoma countered ISU with a trio of quality ball handlers who used dribble penetration to open up the floor and create spot up shooting opportunities. Cyclone defenders struggle to collapse on kick out scenarios effectively and it cost them.
The challenge here for Kansas will be the reliability of their guard play. The Jayhawks have struggle this season due to a general lack of point guard effectiveness, making their ability to take advantage of ISU’s sometimes weak defense a question mark.
What Kansas should be able to do is control the glass to a serious extent given their size. They enter with a physical and athletic front court, but they will also how to figure out a lineup capable of dominating the offense boards while staying out of foul trouble.
Georges Niang is the versatile Iowa State center who can play all over the floor. Joel Embiid is a really good young center, but he is probably not advanced enough to chase Niang out along the perimeter here. Tarik Black’s ability to do that job is also an unknown, and we might see Kansas use small lineups for the first time all season.
Wayne Selden, Andrew White and Brannen Greene could all be extremely effective here in defending multiple positions on switch opportunities. They could also give serious contributions out of a matchup zone should Bill Self choose to go that route.
I had this number at ISU -3 and don’t intend to play this. It’s a very difficult game with the current number of two being reasonably fair. I like the match-ups for Kansas and feel as if general media perception has forced people to forget about how good they could be in the near future.
Still, they aren’t catching enough points here. This is a game that could easily go down to the wire, and I’m not sure Kansas is good enough to back given the differences in offensive efficiency right now. I’ll be interested to see how each group matches up with the other, as it should tell a lot about each group’s prospects come March.
