Christmas Eve offers us quite an interesting Hawaii Bowl as Boise and Oregon State square off. Vegas power rankings show that these two teams are quite similar and there isn’t much of a gap at all between them despite the three point spread being hung out there right now. A key coaching change along with public sentiment that favors the Beavers appears to be dictating the current position of that spread.
Boise was exploited severely early in the year when they stepped up and played Pac-12 competition in the form of Washington, a run oriented group with a versatile quarterback to boot. Still, the Broncos are simply not a prototypical Mountain West program anymore, regardless of Chris Peterson walking out the door to take the Washington job.
Peterson has revamped this group to a level where it has more athleticism and depth than ever before, as evidenced by their ability to stay the course following the loss of quarterback Joe Southwick. They lost three conference games on the year, all on the road. Two came down to the final moments while the BYU game was on a short week and only two weeks off of Southwick’s injury. It marked Grant Hedrick’s first road start as well.
Still, the Broncos defense showed some major weaknesses this year when facing elite offenses, especially against the pass. They finished 16 against the run and only 86 against the pass, and Sean Mannion will be salivating as a result. Mannion had an incredible start to his season following an opening night loss to Eastern Washington.
The Beavers have good balance with two running backs coming on to be productive late in the year. Terron Ward and Storm Woods at least provide what can be a good ground game so that not all of the pressure is on Mannion and Brandin Cooks.
Cooks is a really good player and an NFL caliber wide-out without question. He had 120 catches this season and won numerous postseason awards. But no other receiving option totaled more than 49 catches. Woods was third on the team at 45 REC for a 9.3 average, but you have to wonder if they have the depth to take advantage here.
Their late season losing streak was due in large part to defenses taking advantage of their one dimensional nature as teams like Stanford, USC and Washington held them to low scoring outbursts. While Boise’s defense does not grade up there with the likes of those units, it is good enough against the run here.
Defensively, Oregon State will have to make due in terms of rush defense. Jay Ajayi is a sophomore catalyst for the Broncos, and he gives them a consistent and viable threat to move the chains and keep an opposing offense on the sidelines.
While there is little doubt Ajayi and company should have little trouble moving the ball in this game, the more obvious concern with Boise will be in regard to the quarterback position. While Southwick came back to start the last game of the season, he lasted only one series. He went to Hawaii with the team but has been reportedly sent home for urinating off a balcony in the wee hours of a weekend morning.
Fellow quarterback Nick Patti was initially suspended as well, but he was reinstated, and the entire discussion has turned into an absolute mess regarding how the program handled it.
The public is heavily invested in Oregon State and the effects of the coaching change here are overblown. Boise players had to figure Peterson was leaving at some point. They also have a proven guy in Bob Gregory taking care of them in Hawaii and hired a Boise legend in Bryan Harsin to take charge going into next year.
But not only does this most recent news make you wonder how the current staff handled the situation. It also leaves a devastating loss to the roster with Southwick gone. Hedrick has been serviceable, but to feel that Boise can win this game outright, they probably need Southwick on the field come Saturday, especially in what would have been his last game as a senior captain.
Oregon State’s secondary has been one of the best in turnover creation. They allow only 235 YPG through the air and finished second in the PAC-12 with 19 INT’s. While Ajayi should create havoc on the ground, you wonder if Hedrick can get it done in the red zone and match-up with Mannion’s production over a full four quarters.
Keep an eye on this one as the line could continue to fluctuate. Boise +3.5, if it ever becomes available, would be worth playing. But given the unknowns just discussed, it may be a better bet to avoid this game altogether.
