The Bulldogs head to Memphis with a chance to fully establish themselves as a tournament team. Despite a 21-3 record and an 11-1 conference mark, they have only beaten one team in the top 50 when it comes to RPI ranking. The lack of depth in a down WCC hurts them as well and going into Memphis and grabbing a win would be monumental for their overall resume.
The problem with this game, in addition to the extensive travel they will have to do so late in the year after playing the majority of their recent outings in the same general time zone, will be that Memphis should hold a serious advantage at the guard spot.
Gonzaga has a dynamic scorer in Kevin Pangos to go along David Stockton and Gary Bell in their backcourt. Gerald Coleman has also given them good minutes off the bench, but they will be challenged against what might be one of the deepest and most athletic guard groupings in all of college hoops.
Joe Jackson, Geron Johnson, Michael Dixon and Chris Crawford present a tremendous blend of both quickness and size. They are all good defenders and they play well off each other. The fact that they can throw so many different guys at Pangos will be incredibly beneficial for the Tigers here.
Conversely, I do expect 6’9 Gonzaga forward Sam Dower will be a match-up problem for the Tigers. The senior is excellent at stepping out and hitting from deep, and Austin Nichols is not exactly used to playing along the perimeter for Josh Pastner’s club.
Despite Dower’s likely impact on this game, I don’t see Gonzaga having too many other impact scorers should Pangos be contained the way I expect him to be. You also have to like what Memphis brings on the boards and inside. They are not a great defensive rebounding unit, but that doesn’t matter against this Gonzaga squad. Additionally, Shaq Goodwin provides a nice offset to Przemek Karnowski, even if he does give up a few inches.
Goodwin is more fluid around the rim and shiftier under the basket. He is also used to logging heavier minutes than the seven footer. Should this game be up tempo in the manner Memphis would prefer thanks to the guard pressure they’ll likely bring, any size advantage the Zags possess will be nullified.
These two squads are even in most statistical categories and that is reflected in a spread that currently sits at 4.5. Gonzaga has the firepower to cover a bigger number, and so Vegas is undoubtedly guarding against that by establishing a number that should generate quality two way action.
Odds-making often comes down to creating as much balance as possible when it comes to spread bets. The line on a game is in no way intended to reflect the likely forecast for a game’s outcome.
But I like Memphis here at this semi-diluted number. Gonzaga has a propensity to struggle with more athletic clubs (watch their tape against Dayton and Kansas State and they also struggled a bit with Arkansas back on a neutral in November). Memphis is supremely athletic and I like what their guards should be able to do here.
The Zags do have some nice options at the small forward spot, however. Drew Barham, Kyle Dranginis and Angel Nunez could all play major roles here as Memphis does not really have the same sort of size at the position.
Pastner’s club typically goes with a three guard lineup, but Chris Crawford is a sizable athlete at 6’4 who often plays well above his listed size. Additionally, they do have the versatility to play two talented freshman in Nick Young and Kuran Iverson.
Neither player logs big minutes for this club as they are both still raw for the collegiate level. Still, their presence on the Memphis bench allows Pastner to mix things up should the Zags bench give this Tiger team trouble as the game progresses.
Pastner and Co. has “ESPN Gameday” coming into town and their building should be wild as they welcome a national power. While Mark Few is a big time coach and Pastner is still learning his way, he has the better roster from top to bottom and gets to welcome the Zags in what amounts to a tough road spot for them.
Memphis -4 (B 1/2)
