The 13-4 Musketeers are fresh off a tough loss at Creighton in which they provided the Blue Jays the stiffest test they have yet to see on their home floor. Xavier now comes home to play a Hoyas squad which essentially limps into this game following the suspension of Joshua Smith due to academic issues along with key role figure Jabril Trawick having suffered a broken jaw just a few games ago.
The rotation is looking different for John Thompson III’s team. In their win over Butler, they utilized two former bench players more so than in the past with Aaron Bowen and Reggie Cameron. Both players are bigger, small forward types who fit Thompson’s system well even if they previously been underutilized.
The Hoyas are coming up on a critical part of their schedule, and getting wins will be essential in allowing them to get back to the NCAA tournament. After Xavier, they get Seton Hall, Marquette, Creighton, Villanova and Michigan State, in that order.
Winning two out of the next three at minimum would be ideal for Thomspon III and Co. as they gear up for that lineup. The key to this game for them might well come down to their guards. Xavier is good, but they do not have a ton of scoring options, with only two players currently in double figures.
The most lethal of their weapons, and perhaps one of the most underrated players in America, is point guard Semaj Christon. The 6’3 sophomore is a complete player and excellent athlete who has excelled this year despite a tough schedule. He went for 27 the other day against Creighton, and also dished out five assists.
The game with the Blue Jays was played at an up tempo style with the total possessions reaching 78. Prior to that, the previous seven games for the Musketeers never reached more than 68 possessions, and that should offer them comfort here as the Hoyas enjoy a slow, grinding style.
Of the Musketeers losses, two came against explosive offenses, with another coming at the hands of Tennessee. The Volunteers boast a trio of 6’6-6’8 bodies in Jarnell Stokes, Jordan McRae and Jeronne Maymon. They are also an excellent rebounding unit that plays with a physical style that hampered the Musketeers forwards.
The Vols currently rank 23rd in offensive efficiency, however, and Georgetown is 82. More to the point, the loss of Smith and Trawick takes away two of their important forward options for this game. It also makes the presence of both Bowen and Cameron all the more important.
Xavier is a good rebounding group that should be able to hold up well here. They will struggle to score a ton and pull away in this game, but they will be more than comfortable in playing this sort of style. Georgetown is quite comparable to Cincinnati on certain levels, and Xavier handled them with ease.
The Hoyas are a much better shooting team than the Bearcats, however. They rank 9th in two point field goal efficiency, although that is likely to drop given the absence of Smith.
I have the Musketeers as six point favorites in this game and would look to play any number that appears reduced. There is no real situational advantage here as both teams come off tough games. But the absence of Trawick, and more so Smith, is troubling.
This will be Smith’s third game out, with the Hoyas sitting at 1-1 as of now. The Butler win was thanks in large part to the Bulldogs settling for perimeter opportunities as they took 21 threes and made only two (and still only lost by three).
Xavier is one of the least reliant teams in America when it comes to shooting from downtown. While they do not have a ton of great scorers, they do have seven players who average at least 7.5 PPG. They understand Georgetown’s style and actually seem to play it a bit better than the Hoyas themselves, even if the offenses are not similar.
So long as Xavier proves capable of limiting stud Georgetown guards Markel Starks and D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, they should be okay here. Creighton, USC and Iowa all bullied the Musketeers as a result of their guards outplaying Xavier’s. I do not expect that to happen here, as Georgetown has struggled on the road and is still tweaking their rotation.
