This is another A-10 rivalry in which the original match-up was played back on January 14. That game saw the Colonials handle business against what is perhaps the conference’s top program, escaping at home with a ten point win thanks to a great defensive effort that saw VCU score only .88 points per possessions.

The Rams shot 32% from deep and went to the line only half as many times as their counterparts. Since that loss, however, VCU has gone 6-1, with the lone loss being just this past Saturday against St. Joe’s as they were likely looking ahead to this game.

A massive issue at stake here is the health of the Colonial guards. lead guard and primary ball handler Kethan Savage has missed the last five games and will not play anytime prior to March.

He did not necessarily have a great statistical game against VCU in the first go around, but he was solid on the defensive end and a major factor in G.W.’s ability to control tempo.

Shockingly enough, even with Savage and fellow guard Joe McDonald healthy for that game, G.W. still turned it over 21 times and yet won by ten. They shot the bal a scorching 66% from two point range as Patricia Garino had an incredible game off the bench, scoring 25 points.

McDonald missed the Dayton game, as did Maurice Creek, and played sparingly against Duquesne and Fordham in the last two outings, both blowouts however.

Another interesting aspect of this game in the first go around was G.W.’s ability to take advantage of the Rams’ smaller lineup. Shaka Smart’s club lacks a true center, and Juvonte Reddic was outplayed by 6’10 Colonial center Kevin Larsen, who finished with 22 points and seven rebounds while picking up zero fouls.

The kids from D.C. dominated the glass in the first game as well, and that is another troubling aspect of this game from VCU’s perspective. The final rebounding margin settled at 45-29 in favor of G.W., and the Rams cannot expect to win if that figure is duplicated again here.

This spread opens at 6.5 and has since moved up to seven. I look at the way VCU is playing now and tend to like them in this spot. If they can force turnovers the way they did the first time, so long as they can get a better defensive game in the half court and take the ball to the basket on offense with more consistency, they should be fine here.

G.W. is 3-4 ATS on the year as a road underdog. This is a monumentally important game in the A-10 race as both clubs look to chase the first place Billikens of St. Louis. Both teams are 7-2 and the winner here would have the obvious inside track at the two seed, while the loser would fall down into a likely tie for third with the likes of UMass and St. Joe’s.

Ultimately, so long as McDonald is reasonably healthy, G.W. has the ability to manipulate this game if they can get it into the half court as they want to go to the basket (and the foul line) more than the Rams do. Despite their recent success, they have become very perimeter oriented on the offensive end and that is going to be problematic if they hope to cover a figure as big as seven.