Two very similar ACC programs square off Saturday in one of many interesting conference games. These two met in Tallahassee back on January 4, and the outcome was a resounding win for the Cavaliers which in many ways put them back on track.
UVA had been 9-4 leading up to that game, having lost three of their previous five. The win triggered a three game win streak that nearly reached four had it not been for a late three at Cameron Indoor on Monday night.
The Cavalier defense was relentless in their initial win. FSU scored only 50 points at home and registered a .77 PPP figure, their worst of the season. UVA also grabbed 17 offensive boards in that game, and second chance points typically become a factor when teams such as these meet up.
The rematch will be played in Charlottesville, and I would expect it to be much tighter regardless of the winner. The Seminole offense is better than it looked in that first game, although a big key to their success is dominating the offensive glass. They have two seven footers who play big minutes, and their lineup in general is far more massive than what most opponents are used to dealing with.
But Tony Bennett’s club knows how to enter a brawl, and they might have the most physically imposing defense in the league. They rank third in defensive efficiency and are the fourth best team nationally in defensive rebounding.
The first game also witnessed a turnover differential which favored the Cavaliers by a 16-6 count. Should FSU want to move the series to 1-1, they better take care of the ball this time out. UVA has seemingly steadied itself at the guards spots thanks to London Perrantes. The 6’2 freshman has logged 30 plus minutes in four of the last nine games. More importantly, his assist to turnover ratio is 29-14 during that run.
Perrantes’ presence at the point has enabled UVA to feature a variety of lineups since they can now move Malcolm Brogdon off the ball and allow him to play a more natural position. The 6’5 Brogdon was instrumental in containing FSU senior Ian Miller in the first match-up, and he will likely draw the same responsibility here.
FSU is slowly progressing into a really good program, but this will once again be a tough one for them. I have the Cavaliers as 4.5 point favorites mainly because of how they are currently playing and also due to the fact that they seem to have a more solidified guard situation at this point in time.
The actual number opened at six before being bet down toward 5.5. Nonetheless, it is a clear indication that Vegas sees this UVA team as being superior to FSU. The value at this figure lies on the Seminoles, but given the considerations described, I wouldn’t touch it.
