The new look ACC features a plethora of intriguing new match-ups, and few could be as good as the one we’ll get on Monday night when Coach K and his Blue Devils take a trip up to the Steel City.
These two squads could not be more opposite in nature. While Duke has been an offensive juggernaut for much of the season, they have struggled in defensive areas which are typical strengths of Jamie Dixon teams throughout the last decade.
This Pittsburgh team is no different. They are dominant on the boards and defend the perimeter and interior with excellent intensity. Lamar Patterson gives them a dynamic scorer who has also proven lethal from behind the arc. Their offense has been good enough for much of these first twenty games, but they will now be tested when faced with this Duke club.
The Dukies come off an impressive home thrashing of Florida State in a game which also saw them command the offensive glass despite being considerably smaller. Jabari Parker may have done more in that game for his draft stock than anyone not named Joel Embiid this season, and he will look to carry that momentum over to this game.
Pitt has a few guys they can throw at Parker, but no one is going to stop him. Parker is a fluid prospect for which the game comes naturally. Weather Pitt features zone or man, it doesn’t matter. Duke will get looks and they’ll have opportunities to score.
This game and Pittsburgh’s ability to cover a 3.5/4 point spread will ultimately be determined by what they can do against a Blue Devil club that is slowly becoming very good defensively. The Blue Devil guards are starting to lock down on defense and negate ball penetration.
Amile Jefferson has also come on as a model of consistency for this club. His numbers are not spectacular by any definition of the word, but he has great length and instincts. He will be used to deal with the talented Talib Zanna who has been a menace in the offensive rebounding department this season.
I do not expect Pitt’s guards to put forth big scoring totals, but they need to chip in here. Cameron Wright has scored in double figures in three of his last four outings and James Robinson has been one of the most efficient point men in America. Robinson had not turned the ball over more than once in any game since November 8 prior to his four TO performance in College Park on Saturday.
Robinson will need to set up this offense and play another clean game here tonight in order to ensure that Pitt can both play at their desired tempo and get quality possessions. They need to make Duke work on the defensive end for the majority of the shot clock and they can’t let the Blue Devils get out in transition.
Ultimately, this spread is pretty fair given how hot both clubs are. There is little question that these two might be quite underrated at this point in time. Both currently sit inside the top 20, but advanced metric systems seem to indicate they are both worthy of top 10 consideration.
I look for Pitt to win a tight game so long as they can dictate tempo in the manner described. This should be a fantastic game between two excellent coaches and I’m excited to see how it shapes up.
