A more traditional ACC clash will ensue on the campus of Clemson University as the Blue Devils pay a visit to Littlejohn Coliseum (one of the best venue names in the country). Duke brings the second best offense in the nation into town to take on a team that is as good defensively as perhaps any in the ACC.
The Dukies manhandled Clemson a season ago in their lone meeting, which came as a road game for Clemson. The Tigers looked much improved this season, but have dropped three of six following a 7-1 start.
Losses against Auburn and Florida State proved that certain opponents were capable of playing the Tigers slow and methodical style even better than them. For as good as their defense is, their offense is extremely limited.
K.J. Daniels is a special player who can make plays on both ends of the floor. But he is only one scorer, and the Tigers as a team grade out at only 232 in effective field goal percentage. They are one of the worst teams at getting to the free throw line as well, a byproduct of marginal post talent to put it lightly.
Clemson has two things going for them here: the fact that Duke has at times faltered on the road in conference play and the fact that Clemson plays a very slow style which contrasts Duke’s preference. Those trends make for a closer game than some may think, but I still would in no way bite on Clemson here.
Duke just lost on the road last Saturday to a Notre Dame team that matched their offensive firepower. Coach K will have them on high alert and demand a quality performance. His players should have little trouble delivering given the offensive problems their opponent here has.
Additionally, Duke has played at a slower tempo this season. They still try to get out in transition when possible, but each of their last two games were played at 64 and 61 possessions respectively. I’d look for this one to land in the low sixties as well, with the Dukies likely posting a substantially better PPP ratio than their counterpart.
I had the Blue Devils as likely 4.5 point favorites while the posted number is more in line with 5.5/6. Given the likely pace and the familiarity, it’s difficult to back Duke at a number this inflated. Vegas knows they will draw a lot of public support against a less than sexy opponent. They also know that Duke is likely to handle business here, so they have thrown out a line which provides virtually no value for the road favorite.
