The Atlantic 10 conference has provided us with more than a few nail biters lately and I expect this one here between the Flyers and Bonnies could follow suit. St. Bonaventure has played in two such grinders recently, dropping tough road games against Duquesne and Richmond in the last two weeks.
St. Bonaventure is 0-4 on the road in conference but 3-1 at home and they will look to inch back toward .500 overall when they welcome in Archie Miller’s club here. Dayton picked up an enormous win against an injury plagued GW club last Saturday and followed it up with a thrashing at the hands of George Mason on Wednesday night.
The primary issue for the Flyers here will likely be a defense that ranks 152 in the nation. Bonaventure counters with an offense that can do damage on the glass and two senior guards who have set the standard.
I expect Matthew Wright and Charlon Kloof to continue setting the table for Mark Schmidt’s squad, but you have to wonder if it will be enough given the depth of the Flyers’ guards. Dayton is a perimeter oriented club and, while their defense has struggled at times, they have the lateral quickness to contain this Bonnies squad.
The bigger struggle for Miller and Co. will be their ability to contain inside. They have struggled against virtually every legitimate center they have played all year. Youssou Ndoye is not a natural post scorer for the Bonnies, but he is a menace on the boards and a major factor defensively.
St. Bonaventure also brings two talented wings off the bench. Both Dion Wright and Marquisee Simmons are contributors for this club and Jordan Gathers is yet another guard who should help them counter Dayton’s depth there.
Schmidt’s squad opened as 2.5 point favorites and that number has since risen to 3.5 in the last 12 or so hours. Roughly 55% of the betting public likes the home team as well. Of their key non conference match-ups against the likes of Canisius, Iona and Delaware, they were able to defeat all those teams as the are the better defensive club.
Similar results were experienced against LaSalle and UMass, both of which came at home. They had little trouble in scoring on groups who lack defensive discipline, and Dayton will have to grow up in a hurry in that area if they want to grab a crucial road win here.
This number as it stands now it pretty fair in my estimation and I like the Bonnies to win this game. Dayton is playing well and also playing desperate right now, however. This could be the sort of tight match-up which does indeed go down to the wire and inevitably favors which ever team is getting the full 3.5.
