With the month of February upon us, the college hoops landscape is beginning to heat up as we head toward March. We just witnessed Florida, Wichita State and San Diego State all climb into the top five of the AP poll this week. This all came after the likes of Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa State had all fallen off with major losing streaks after also being previously positioned within the nation’s top 5.
The rankings are a nice gage for where the media and fans believe certain teams sit, but they change for a reason. I wouldn’t anticipate a large amount of additional movement with what we have left of this year, but you really never know in this sport. Schedules can be backloaded at times, and the intrinsic value of certain teams can often lie outside of where the general public perceives it to be.
Several teams currently stand out as being a bit mis-valued at this point in the year. Based on conference alignment, scheduling and overall match-ups, opportunities to fade and/or back them might not come until the NCAA tournament. We’ll attempt to identify several of those groups and give you an idea of how the overall landscape could change in the coming weeks.
San Diego State
I’m a fan of Steve Fischer and what he’s done with this program since taking over in the late 90’s. Their recent road win at Utah State was gutsy and they have only one loss this year which came at home to number one Arizona. They fell that night by nine points and it was their second game of the season, a difficult task for a young club.
While I love where they are headed and believe their recruiting class next year along with transfer Angelo Chol could put them in prime position to be Final Four contenders at that time, I don’t buy into their hype right now.
They beat Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, a win that could set them up to be a 2-3 seed at worst should they finish strong. They also beat Creighton on a neutral floor and hold other quality wins over Marquette, Boise and UNLV.
But their offense has major question marks. They rank 325 nationally in 2P field goal percentage and aren’t a ton better from downtown. They do play a style that some will find difficult to counter given their absurd length and defensive prowess.
In order to really go deep in March, however, you have to be able to score and I don’t see this team doing enough of it. Trips to Boise, Wyoming, New Mexico and UNLV await them, as does the MWC tournament. But that conference is down for the most part in comparison to last year and we won’t get a true sense of what they are capable of until the big tournament.
I’d look for quality opportunities to fade them in the NCAA’s. Teams that possess the size to go at them along with legitimate offensive firepower will prove difficult for them to deal with. I don’t envision them getting bounced too early, but they will most likely meet their match at some point prior to the regional finals.
Michigan
I’m not trying to disrespect the Wolverines because I don’t mean to argue the fact that they are a good team. But their recent rise in the wake of Mitch McGary’s injury has been almost dumbfounded and you have to wonder if their inclusion in the top 10 is truly warranted.
Their big wins recently have come at the hands of two relatively overrated teams in Iowa and Wisconsin. Both of those teams couldn’t match them in terms of offensive output and had been due for losses given their schedules.
Their win in East Lansing was great, but came in large part due to MSU not being able to take advantage of them inside given their own injuries. Their upcoming schedule will see them play road games in Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue and Illinois. It will also afford them home rematches with the Spartans and Badgers.
This team is incredibly reliant on the three ball and they do not get to the foul line much at all (currently ranked 284 in that category). While Nik Stauskas is playing extremely well, he needs a side kick. Caris LeVert and Glenn Robinson are good players, but they are also very much the same player. They are each efficient from behind the arc and in the mid range areas, but they don’t do a ton to complement Stauskas’ skill set.
Derrick Walton has played better at the point recently, but I do not trust the freshman just yet. His game has been predicated more on avoiding mistakes than making plays, and that eventually has to change.
The Wolverines still do a lots really well and they have one of the elite basketball minds in America coaching them. Still I see some struggles in their future and believe the team that began the year at 6-4 could very well show up again. They simply don’t have enough interior talent to make another serious NCAA tournament run, and I would look to take advantage of them should they play a team with major size at some point in the Big Dance.
Villanova
The Wildcats sit at 18-2 and are currently in second place in the new look Big East. To date, they have seriously outplayed expectations regarding where many thought they should be and hold wins over Kansas and Iowa.
But those two teams don’t shoot it all that well from three, and that is the true achilles heal for this team. Having talented guards with tremendous size is beneficial for them. But Jay Wright’s strategy to rebuild his program mostly centered around defense. He established a mindset on that end of the floor that banks on them protecting the paint and communicating with good help side reaction.
That was great a year ago and has worked in many match-ups this season. But, as UNC proved against them in the tournament, they struggle to defend the perimeter. They are 225 in 3P defense and were exposed mightily by Creighton and Syracuse this season in that regard.
I expect them to continue to cruise through their remaining Big East schedule, but playing different match-ups (for example a potential Pac-12 group) in the NCAA’s could create problems for them.
In addition to the 3P defense, they don’t have much depth inside and I’d be interested to see them in a rematch with a team like Kansas now that the Jayhawks have figured things out a bit more.
Cincinnati
The Bearcats are another team that does a number of things really well. They are in first within the American Athletic Conference and hold a 19-2 record.
But their best wins have come against Pittsburgh, SMU and Memphis. The Panthers and Mustangs are not great offensive units, and Cincy could well struggle against opposing squads with more explosiveness.
They rank 121 in offensive efficiency and are 230 in 2P field goal percentage. They play Louisville for the first of two games on Thursday and also have two games with UConn on the slate to go along with rematches against Memphis and SMU.
Their schedule is undoubtedly backloaded, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall apart in the NCAA’s should they draw a formidable offense. This team is built from the inside out and they will likely command the paint against many opponents.
They do have a very talented guard in Sean Kilpatrick. The 6’4 senior is well built and can both drive it as well as hit from deep. But he is the only true scorer on this squad and I don’t believe he can shoulder the burden by himself.
Oklahoma
The Sooners were at times dominant in their beat down of rival Oklahoma State Monday night. They play a frenetic pace and have great guard depth. Their ball handlers look to push and almost constantly attack, and that makes them dangerous in virtually any scenario.
This team is 17-4 and 6-2 within conference play, impressive numbers given how bad they are on the defensive side of the ball. They are 123 in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are not horrific in any particular area. They are more so in the middle of the pack when it comes to key defensive metrics, and I generally respect what Lon Kruger is doing with this program.
But their schedule is awfully tough down the stretch. Saturday, they travel to Iowa State and will follow that up with road games in Morgantown, Stillwater and Lawrence.
They also play Texas and Kansas State at home. They will be favored in those spots, but teams with size can give them trouble as they have a thing front line.
Gonzaga transfer Ryan Spangler is a really good sophomore and he does a ton for them inside. He is one of the best rebounders in the conference and is, at times, the heart and should of their team.
But this club doesn’t have a great non conference resume. Their only top 50 wins to date are against Texas, iowa State and Oklahoma State. Their guards are dynamic and they are a team headed in the right direction, but I still see them as being a year away from doing anything overly special.
UCLA
The Steve Alford experiment has been vastly overlooked for much of this season, and the Bruins are not even ranked right now despite a 16-4 record. All four losses came at the hands of top 50 teams, with two coming on the road, one on a neutral and the home loss come by four to number one Arizona.
This team is one of the best offensive groups on the west coast and they have a plethora of shooters. Alford’s son Bryce has provided quality minutes off the bench and if you haven’t seen him and fellow freshman Zach LaVine play together yet, you are missing out.
Kyle Anderson equips them with one of the more unique offensive prospects in America and he has, at times, been verbally likened to a “poor man’s Magic Johnson,” by certain announcers. Jordan Adams is another quality scorer and Normal Powell gives them an elite defensive asset at the guard position.
The key to their likelihood for success will be the play of sophomore forward and former All-American Tony Parker. The 6’9, 255 pounder had been coming on recently prior to a seven minute, four foul performance against Cal on Sunday.
This team hits the road for three straight against Oregon, Oregon State and USC prior to potentially difficult home dates with Colorado and Utah. They will not see the Wildcats on their schedule again, and I’d be shocked to see them lose more than four of their final 11 outings.
A 23-8 year in what was looked at as a potential rebuilding project for Alford would be a great win. It would also likely get this team a quality position within the NCAA tournament, and they could be a tough out.
They play fast and can shoot from deep. Also, everyone in their rotation save for Parker can hit from at least 14 feet out. Not many teams can say that, and that makes the Bruins a club to keep tabs on moving forward.
Providence
I tend to believe the Friars are underrated right now, but that could quickly change given that four of their next five and seven of 10 overall upcoming games will come away from the home venue that is so kind to them.
They recently beat both Creighton and Xavier in the “Dunkin’ Donuts Center,” and that has them sniffing the perimeter of the top 25 poll for the first time in years. They are the best free throw shooting club in the country and feature a point guard in Bryce Cotton who should get legitimate consideration as a possible second team All-American.
Cotton has been asked to shoulder the load at the point position thanks to early season injury problems for Kris Dunn. Cotton has played all but SIX minutes for his team dating back to Thanksgiving, and three of those games went to overtime (two going to double overtime)!
Cotton might well be the best conditioned player in the land and he could end up on an NBA roster next year should he find the right opportunity. He is incredibly fluid with the ball and has substantially cut down on his turnover numbers since taking on this expanded role.
You can’t talk enough about how important quality point guard play is, and I’d argue Cotton is one of the best 6-8 options at the position in all of the country. He is a deadly perimeter shooter and everyone around him knows their role.
Kadeem Batts, Tyler Harris and LaDontae Henton create a much better front court than many could have envisioned previously. Junior Carson Desrosiers is a true seven footer who has played more meaningful minutes since January 5. His abilities down low enable Henton to roam and play more small forward.
This team ranks 350 in bench minutes and is not great away from home, so those are certainly concerns. They also really aren’t all that great of a shooting team in total.
But Ed Cooley is beginning to establish himself as a really good coach in the Big East. When he took this program over a few years back, they were barely a top 100 team in the RPI. They currently sit inside the top 50 and have room for additional improvement down the stretch should they cure their road woes.
More importantly, Cooley has them playing a slow style that is perfect to their overall makeup. They feature a potentially difficult zone, just ask Creighton.
I’d expect the Friars to slip up down the stretch to some extent, but they are still a team I expect to sneak into the NCAA tournament given their current resume. They are 15-5 and a 20 win year with wins already over Creighton and Xavier is nothing to dismiss.
Oregon
The Ducks opened up with a 13-0 start and simply could not keep that pace up forever. They dropped five in a row to begin conference play with a 1-5 mark, but they completely demolished Washington State on the road on Sunday and things could be looking up for them.
They struggled to adjust their rotation with Dominic Artis and Ben Carter having served nine game suspensions to start the year. Working those two back into the lineup took time, but they seem to have their rotation more well constructed at this moment.
The first of two games with UCLA will take place in eugene on Thursday and they also have two match-ups with Arizona and Arizona State. Those are excellent opportunities for improvements to their overall tournament resume and this team can flat out score. They have a nice stable of guards and shoot the ball well from behind the arc.
Their are some major concerns given the fact their interior options are mostly major question marks. Carter is playing major minutes because senior Waverly Austin has proven too passive to command the paint area the way Tony Woods did a season ago.
Still, I’d look for them to improve within the conference. they are way too talented to be sitting in third to last place, and having their rotation solidified will help improve that position.
