The Tar Heels limp into this Saturday showdown fresh off three consecutive losses and with their season basically hanging in the balance. They have had a week off and will need to focus in the next three weeks as they have a gauntlet of challenges which should determine their likelihood of making the NCAA tournament.
Boston College had a horrible start, but they enter this game following a much needed road win at Virginia Tech followed by a tough performance against number two Syracuse. They hung around until late, but free throw issues and an inability to neutralize the Orange on the offensive glass did them in.
They now have to hit the road and play a Tar Heels team that should be ready to go. These two played in late January of last year up in Chestnut Hill and the Eagles seriously struggled to keep pace with a team that just simply has better athletes.
Carolina is comparable to Syracuse in the sense that they have a dominant front court that goes about four deep. I do not see the Eagles being able to deal with that given their thin roster overall. Will Magarity is a 6’11 prospect who has shown some flashes at times, but he is ill prepared to deal with this sort of game right now in his career.
B.C. only played one body off the bench for more than five minutes the other night, and that isn’t good either. The one thing they do have going for them is their offense and ability to shoot from deep. They have talented guards who, if they had a better front court, might very well make a serious push to contend in this conference.
Olivier Hanlan and Joe Rahon are a major reason this team ranks 21st nationally in effective two point field goal percentage. But Carolina counters with a defense that has been pretty good this year.
The overall difference in defensive efficiency is massive in this game. Carolina will not only benefit from that and their being at home, but also in terms of style difference. The Heels play at the 14th quickest pace in America while B.C. comes in at 324.
A more up tempo game benefits the deeper and more athletic club, and the Eagles do not have the overall guard depth or turnover efficiency metrics to hang here.
I have this game at 13.5, and while it did open at 13 one some sites, it is now posting at 11 with most service providers. This is a good spot to buy low on UNC. Remember that this tam went into Michigan State and controlled the game the entire way against a good Spartans squad.
They do have some questions at guard, and I’m not sure how good they are overall in the grand scheme of things, but this is an excellent match-up for them and they could walk out of here with a 15-20 point win easily.
UNC – 11
