The Bears appeared to have rebounded from a brutal stretch with their win last week in Stillwater. That game came without the services of point man Kenny Cherry, who sat with an ankle injury. Cherry attempted to return against Kansas this past week but was only able to play 11 minutes in an ugly home loss to the Big 12 conference leading Jayhawks.
It remains a major uncertainty as to the status of Cherry for this game, but his presence will be critical when the Bears go up against a guard laden Oklahoma squad that is as deep at the position as any in the conference.
The Sooners feature an up tempo attack that ranks 16th in offensive efficiency thanks to some really talented ball handlers who constantly look for their shot. Buddy Heild and Jordan Woodard always look to penetrate first, however, and they rarely settle for bad looks from deep.
Baylor has been up and down defensively all year and they will likely struggle to contain these guys if Cherry is not on the floor. Gary Franklin is a serviceable defender who comes off the bench as a senior. He has been thrust into the starting role with Cherry down. He is a solid defender, however. He should hold up reasonably well on that end of the floor in this game.
But, offensively, the lack of a solidified point guard presence will make the Bears’ offense less effective and also enable Oklahoma to get out in transition more than Scott Drew would like. At the same time, the Bears have serious match-up advantages in the front court and taking advantage of them will be a critical key to this game here and their ability cover the given spread of 4.5
While Ryan Spangler has been one of the best individual rebounders in the nation, Oklahoma is barely above average nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding efficiency. Baylor counters with the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the country and that is alarming for Lon Kruger here.
Baylor also has shot the ball considerably better in recent weeks thanks to the play of Brady Heslip. This Bear team is 33rd in 3P% and Oklahoma is 119 in defending the perimeter look. Facilitating quality looks against a club that knows how to defend the perimeter will require quality ball handling, something this team lacks without Cherry.
I had this spread closer to six, but oddsmakers have released an opening number of 4.5 at most places. The number initially went up to 5/5.5 and has since come back down to settle in the 4.5 range.
That figure is testimony to the fact that the Bears are a desperate club playing for their tourney lives. While they have struggled for the most part lately, there is little real difference between these two clubs and the Bears, should they have Cherry in the lineup, could be the more valuable pick given the fact they have performed reasonably well this year in the underdog role.
Their strengths in the front court, should they be able to dictate a slower tempo, would also bode well for them. But, again, it might all come down to the health of Cherry who looks to be a game time decision as far as this afternoon. Even if he does play, the health of his ankle will be a question mark and that leaves me unlikely to play this game on either side.
