Big 12 play continues tonight at 9 P.M. when Baylor pays a visit to Lawrence. The Bears are fresh off a tough, last second loss to Oklahoma on Saturday and must now turn around and play in one of the more difficult environment in America.
Currently, the Jayhawks are 9.5/10 point favorites after opening as high as 10.5. The current total sits at 142.5 after opening in the 143-143.5 range. While the spread bets have been split relatively evenly, the over has been hit at an over 80% clip heading into this one.
The under is an interesting proposition here given the nature of both clubs. Baylor has come on in recent weeks on the offensive end but, as evidenced in their performance against a mediocre Sooner defense, they still have a long way to go.
Baylor is actually ranked in the top 50 in terms of three point percentage and also comes in with a host of quality interior options. They rank in the top 30 in offensive efficiency, and those factors are obvious reasons as to why this total is elevated into the 140 range.
Kansas comes into this game fresh off a crazy 80-78 win over Oklahoma State at home on Saturday. They were pushed to the limit despite holding a 17 point halftime lead. Their battle with the Cowboys reached 73 possessions, and this comes after a battle in Ames with the Cyclones that reached 79 possessions.
The key for Baylor to compete in this game and keep it tight will be their able to avoid turnovers and keep the tempo down. While Kansas averages 69 possessions per game (good for 90th nationally), Baylor comes in at a shade under 64. They are one of the slower teams in the country, and that is dictated by their point guard situation.
Kenny Cherry is a talented junior transfer who has really helped this Bears team in the wake of them losing Pierre Jackson. That being said, he is the only true point on the roster and has been asked to do a lot. He has logged over 30 minutes in each of his last two performances and currently turns it over on roughly 17% of his possessions.
Kansas has been good at times in forcing turnovers and then creating fast break opportunities. But most of their work comes through their excellent ability to cut off passing angles.
Each of the last two opponents in OSU and ISU are very perimeter oriented, and that will not be the case here with this opponent. Baylor has quality options inside and they should be able to go after Kansas down low.
I like Baylor’s chances of keeping their turnover numbers down. I also believe they have the bodies inside to keep Joel Embiid from duplicating his dominant performance on Saturday. Most of Kansas’ ability to put up big scoring totals comes from their ability to both dictate pace and dominate the inside.
So long as Baylor can avoid them from controlling those two areas, they should be able to at least play at a tempo that benefits them. I think that is how this game plays out, and I look for a game played in the 134-138 range as opposed to the current price.
Baylor/Kansas Under 143
