Bowl season continues to heat up on Monday with Texas and Oregon facing off in the Alamo Bowl. The Ducks will play this one off a 10-2 campaign which saw them go 7-5 ATS. Texas was a mediocre .500 against the number, but finished 8-4 in a difficult Big 12.
Texas is a 14.5 point underdog in this game, and that is a testimony to both the mediocrity of the Longhorns and the dynamic success of Oregon’s offense. Mack Brown will be departing Austin following this game, and that is an intangible factor which could also weigh on decision makers and gamblers as they prep for this game.
Brown is an icon to the Texas program and respected by everyone involved. His players love him, and that will add in a motivational aspect of this game which did not exist prior to the announcement of his resignation. On the flip side, Oregon was looking at a possible BCS title game appearance just six weeks ago. They are left to play in a December 30 bowl game instead, and it just so happens to basically be a road game given location and opponent.
But the biggest concern to Oregon fans has to be the play of their own club in recent weeks. While they still rank in the top five in most pertinent statistical categories, their defense looked beyond pedestrian in the last two weeks while allowing 42 and 35 points to Arizona and Oregon State, respectively.
Those performances reaffirmed the idea that Oregon could be taken down by opponents capable of battling at the line of scrimmage with them, but each game was interesting for afferent reasons. Prior to pounding it 45 times on the ground at home against the Beavers, Oregon’s run game was downsized by a powerful Arizona attack which neutralized the Ducks. They built a lead and forced Marcus Mariota to throw it excessively, a formula which proved unstable during the surprising blowout loss.
This team’s difficulties begin and end with their ability to run the ball. While Mariota is a special talent with major NFL potential, he is best served in a routine which enables him to only a chunk of the overall workload. This is particularly important as their offensive line is a more athletic group, built to pull on misdirection and take on multiple defenders as opposed to pass blocking for 45+ times an outing.
Oregon’s offense has still been good lately, but it hasn’t been dominating. As far as their opponent, Texas’ defense improved tremendously following the dismissal of Manny Diaz. They gave up 4.1 YPC in their finale against Baylor and 4.6 per in a home beat down at the hands of Oklahoma State. The loss to the Cowboys witnessed them surrender 95 yards on 10 carries to quarterback Clint Chelf, a telling result given Mariota’s ability to scramble in a game like this.
Texas practices against up tempo offensive flow regularly and has seen performances from the likes of Johnathan Gray on a daily basis during the regular season up until his injury. Gray will not be available to simulate the Oregon speed leading up to this one, but Texas has a decent understanding of what they are in for.
Texas has a top 40 defense and played one of the nation’s toughest schedules. While they should have trouble stopping Oregon, they have what it takes to contain them. The real key to their ability to cover will hinge upon their own offense and how well it proves capable of controlling clock.
Texas had issues when facing elite defensive competition toward the end of the year. Case McCoy’s performances against Baylor and OSU were the biggest issue in their coming up short in both games. Oregon features a defense with tremendous talent that puts them on a similar level to some of the units Texas has seen and struggled with.
Oregon is built with speed and rangy athleticism at its second level. McCoy has to be weary of critical turnovers. He was to deliberate enough with the ball in his late season losses and floated way too many balls.
Stanford and Arizona used a power run game to wear down the Ducks. Malcolm Brown is a solid 6’0, 225, but they have little else to go with now that the speedster Gray is gone. Brown will have to hold up for a full game and carry a massive workload, but he posted good numbers in virtually every outing down the stretch this season.
Brown will be the key to controlling the ball and moving the chains, but McCoy will be the factor in generating successful red zone trips. Oregon doesn’t prefer to put just three points on the board too often, and keeping pace with them to any extent lies in your own ability to generate touchdowns.
Brown (the head coach) and his staff will have to pull out all the stops in getting this done. I look for a loose performance from them, and like what their run game could be capable of in a spot like this. Texas’s style may not be physical all the time, but they showed in the Oklahoma match-up that they are more than capable of stepping up to their opponent’s level of competition.
Brown’s group makes an interesting proposition given the massive spread, the public support behind Oregon (currently receiving 71% of spread bets), and the site and circumstances surrounding this game. I’m not sure I trust Case McCoy to any serious extent here, but the other factors discussed make them worth the investment. They will play inspired and loose, and that;s worth something in bowl season.
Texas +14.5
