The AFC championship game in 2014 will be another bout between two legends on Sunday when New England heads to Denver with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
This game was supposed to happen last year, and the fact that it is going down now is probably cause for celebration among NFL and CBS employees. Fans can’t seem to get enough of these quarterbacks and this game will add to the legacy they have each already established.
But what makes the AFC championship match-up so interesting comes down to these two teams in total. When they met back on November 24, the Denver defense and run game played massive roles in the flow and outcome of the game. The fact that Brady and Belichick have looked to run often in prior playoff meetings with Peyton Manning is also testimony to that.
But the championship round comes down to players in total more so than just general match-ups. Teams that get this far into the season have done so with great focus and discipline along a tough road. Penalties and turnovers could well decide this game, but that is unlikely given what we know about both franchises, and given the characters who will likely decide it.
Speaking of players, everyone is quick to point out all the talent Denver has on their roster. They looked like a piece of video game propaganda for much of the first two months prior to settling down and playing more balanced and normal football at the end.
But they will be without serious assets such as Chris Harris and Von Miller in this game. Their offense has also sputtered down the stretch (compared to their start) in the wake of offensive line changes which have limited Mannings drops to more three and five step than anything other.
Still, this Denver team is pretty close to being as complete as it gets. Their power run game behind the efforts of two backs was immense in that November Sunday night classic. Playoff football has everything to do with making sure you take care of the football and line the scrimmage, and this offensive line has answered the bell in virtually every instance. The rest of their offense speaks for itself.
Both pass rushes are not where they would like to be, with New England’s success last week due in large part to Andrew Luck being a bit nervous in his first playoff game against a legend. Denver’s linebacker situation is weaker now, but Shaun Phillips adds a veteran presence to a young group headlined by Malik Jackson, Wesley Woodyard and Danny Trevathan.
On the flip side, New England’s offense has been ravaged by injuries and other “issues” this season. They are here because they have the game’s best player. It’s crazy to think this is the first time in ages that Brady and Belichick are dogs in the playoffs, but it’s even more ridiculous that New England is even in this game when you really stop and think about it.
Julian Edelman had 105 catches this season with the second leading guy, Danny Amendola, coming in with 54.
They have two running backs whom few casual fans really knew of prior to this year, each with 700+ yards rushing this season. Their defense is headlined by a secondary that has improved over the course of the last 18 months perhaps more than any could have imagined.
New England may have well gone to the big game last year were it not for a hamstring injury to Aqib Talib. Talib had four tackles on Saturday and T.Y. Hilton was never really in the flow of the game. It was thought that Hilton’s speed could prove problematic for Talib and Co., but that wasn’t the case.
Talib is the perfect asset to place on Demaryius Thomas for a game like this. He can play physical at the line of scrimmage and take away Thomas’ most important assets. Alfonzo Dennard is another nice option for slot man Wes Welker, and he also knows most of his tricks from their years in New England.
The Patriots secondary has to hold up to some extent here. The injury issues experienced by the New England front seven are alarming in size and quantity, and they could allow for the Denver run game to set up the play action. Talib is a special talent who can blanket people with astonishing ease. He will have to spearhead this group and demand that they play beyond their expectations.
Jacob Tamme was the leading Bronco receiver when these two first met, with Eric Decker being held to only one catch. Julius Thomas also did not play in that game, and it will be difficult for New England to deal with him given their current safety situation. Belichick will have to figure out some sort of methodology for attempting to limit him, but his biggest concern could be stopping the aforementioned running backs.
Knowshon Moreno was publicly discussed in extensive review following his tearing up in the Kansas City game, an outing which came directly after he shredded this New England run defense for 224 in the loss. The fact is, players like Moreno make this Denver team what it is. You can sense the joy younger players show for the opportunity to play with a guy like Manning, and you can bet teammates on both sidelines will relish this moment on Sunday.
Moreno is the speed back to Montee Ball’s power, and the two together are more than enough for Manning to execute sufficiently against a defense that has struggled with the run all year long. Manning wants to pound it in this matchup, and this massive offensive line will hold plenty of advantages over a Patriots defensive front without Vince Wilfork and Brandon Spikes.
All that makes the fact that Denver is favored by 5.5/6 points a fair assumption. But history points to a very different yet typical outcome, with Manning actually never having covered the spread against Brady in the playoffs during all these years.
The other interesting thing about this game is what it means for Brady. Perhaps the greatest competitor the game has ever seen, his shortcomings against the likes of Baltimore and New York in the last five years would be put to rest should he walk out of Invesco Field as the AFC champ. Among probably a variety of attendees, both John Elway and Peyton Manning would be spectators for that scene.
But beating Indianapolis was expected. Watching Brady hand the ball off to LeGarrette Blount on Saturday night, it was almost as if Brady was attempting to conserve his arm for this Sunday. Any trip to the Super Bowl in a player’s later years would be special, but a mere win here in Denver would be something to see for New England fans.
The public is all over the Patriots at about a 65-70% clip. They look at this team as being red hot right now, even if that is quite fabricated. The real value lies on denver, especially given the far that the Broncos closed as 1.5 point favorites back in New England some six weeks ago. Shifting the number six points for an exchange of home field would offer you 7.5.
Even if that initial line should have been closer to a pick-em or perhaps New England -1-1.5, this number should be considerate of one other major factor: Denver gets their stud tight end back for this game while New England will play without theirs.
That being said, this is simply a tough game to play. If you could have taken a piece of New England +6.5 earlier in the week and then came back on Denver at -4, that would present some legitimate value.
Everything about these rosters points to Denver, but it wouldn’t allow me to touch them given that number 12 will be on the other sideline. Sometimes people say a game could be a classic and it’s really all BS. That isn’t the case here, as both of these quarterbacks will want to take this one over come the second half.
I find it incredibly interesting that, after year’s apart when it came to playoff match ups, the two reunite as elder statesmen in a league dominated at times by younger names. The NFC Title game following this one will feature two such “new generation” quarterbacks, but both have a long way to go in their careers relative to what these AFC teams have to offer. That should make every second of this one well worth it.
Denver 35-30
