The Buffaloes welcome in the red hot Sun Devils in a critical, late season Pac-12 showdown. ASU sits at 8-4 in conference play and has won three in a row in addition to six of their last seven.
Colorado has seen a once promising season begin to slip away following the injury to Spencer Dinwiddie. They fell to Arizona on the road the day he was injured, and they followed that up with a demoralizing beat down in Tempe which triggered a free fall that they eventually cured thanks to a three game stretch which saw them beat
Utah, Washington State and Washington,
Still, Tad Boyle’s team needs quality wins to prove to the tournament committee that they are legitimate without Dinwiddie. This game is monumentally important given that their only other home game comes on Saturday against likely number one seed Arizona. It is unlikely they would be favored in any game beyond this one, yet Vegas opened them as a three point favorite here prior to the number escalating to 3.5 as of Tuesday night.
This is a pretty good spot for the Buffaloes given the fact the Sun Devils are coming off a home upset on Friday night of the Wildcats. That game went to double overtime and was a classic. It also saw ASU’s top three players log 48, 47 and 45 minutes respectively, and you have to wonder how they’ll rebound here, on the road against a desperate club.
For as good as Jahii Carson is, this Sun Devils team has turned the corner thanks to the quality of their defense. They rank 19th nationally in overall efficiency on that end and have succeeded in incorporating both man and match-up zone looks which have frustrated opponents.
Colorado counters with a strong front court capable of dominating the glass here. Josh Scott is a formidable body inside and he should be able to stick with ASU big man Jordan Bachynski. ASU’s lack of a bona fide power forward could play a role here, as Colorado has two additional front line commodities in Xavier Johnson and Wesley Gordon.
The Buffaloes are excellent on the defensive glass and could also hold a small advantage on the offensive boards in this game. But the biggest concern for them will be defending the perimeter look. In addition to ranking 22 in 3P field goal efficiency, ASU is 83rd when it comes to 3PA/FGA. Carson’s penetrating abilities create a world of opportunity for other scoring options on this team, and the Buffaloes have struggled to defend outside.
Speaking of quality shooting performances, ASU hit nearly 50% from deep when they blasted these Buffaloes by a score of 72-51. ASU had incredibly balanced scoring in that game and it enabled them to win easily.
The fact that the Sun Devils scored 72 is not surprising, but the Buffaloes’ inability to generated consistent offense was. In the wake of losing their star, they looked lost on that end of the floor and received virtually zero help from a bench that was thrust into the spotlight too soon.
Colorado is a young team, which is the big concern in backing them right here. They have overcome the earlier injury turbulence, and they will be pumped for this re-match. Still, ASU is red hot right now and seemingly on a mission thanks to a veteran laden group. While the situational nature of this game does benefit Colorado, the fact that the Arizona win came on Friday is extremely beneficial in providing an extra day of rest for the Sun Devils.
I was hoping the Buffalos would get a spread more in line with 1.5/2, but it’s unlikely that we will see anything like that here. I have too many concerns with this Colorado offense to back them at the number 3.5, but look at this game as a major opportunity for both clubs. This battle should show a lot about where Colorado is heading into the conference tournament and also illustrate just how mentally tough this ASU club is from top to bottom.
