A battle of two top tier Big East teams is set to go down Tuesday as the Villanova Wildcats seek to avenge a loss last year in the “Dunkin Donuts Center.”
Providence won that game 69-66 a season ago thanks to great defense which restricted the effectiveness of the Wildcat guards. The Friars themselves only shot 2-14 from deep, failing to expose the achilles heel of this Jay Wright team in recent seasons. Still, they had control of the game for virtually the entire second half and held on at the end.
Villanova also went down by three points when the Friars visited Pennsylvania a few weeks later, making for a Providence sweep in the series. That Providence team had Kris Dunn at the point position back in 2013. He had 13 points to go along with four turnovers in their home win.
Turnovers were a major storyline for both teams in both games last year, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out this season.The Wildcats turned it over 25 times in the road match-up, wasting a multitude of chances that could have enabled them the opportunity to grab hold of a lead in a game they never managed well.
Villanova has become much more effective at taking care of the ball this year, thanks in large part to the development of Darrun Hilliard and Tony Chenault. The duo has become a solid point guard tandem and Chennault’s presence off the bench along with his comfort in running this offense has enabled Hillaird to play big minutes at both guard positions while Wright can also go small in using a three guard lineup with James Bell at small forward.
Providence doesn’t have Dunn this year, and Bryce Cotton has been playing an absolutely ridiculous amount of minutes in recent weeks. It doesn’t seem to bother Cotton, however, as he would be the Player of the Year frontrunner if it were not for the presence of Creighton stud Doug McDermott.
Cotton missed one minute in the DePaul win on Saturday. Prior to that game, he had played every minute in Providence’s previous 10 affairs, including one game which went to double overtime.
Cotton has proven turnover prone at times as he is not a natural point, but the bigger issue here will be the Villanova defense. Providence overall is simply not a good shooting team. Villanova has several guards they can throw at the Friar’s lead man, and I can’t see him having the impact he needs to have for them to win in this go around.
Villanova opened on some books as 5.5 point favorites, but that number has since settled in at 4.5. I had the spread at 2.5, which would lend some credence to the idea that the home dog has some legitimate value here. Providence is a strong team at home and they need a big win here.
They have already defeated the likes of Creighton and Xavier in this building, but this game will be different as a result of the revenge angle in play. Also, I do not trust the efficiency of this Providence offense to manufacture points consistently if Cotton is limited.
Even if Cotton has a good floor game himself, he needs teammates to step up. Kadeem Batts and LaDontae Henton are excellent sidekicks, but they did not post great numbers when dealing with the Wildcats a season ago.
Villanova is a bit thin down low, but they have excellent versatility on defense. They have a few swingmen who can rotate to the ball quickly and drop down low in help side situations.
An understanding of what these Wildcats can do on that end of the floor combined with the uncertain nature of this Providence offense makes this a non-play for me. I’m interested to see how Villanova comes off a second Creighton loss, but they have played well against virtually ever other opponent this season and I expect it to continue here.
