A battle of the top two teams in the Colonial Athletic association is set to tip off later tonight when Towson welcomes the Blue Hens of Delaware into their arena.
These two first met on January 25, with the result being a 83-76 win for Delaware at home. Devon saddler poured in 23 off the bench and four Hens got to double figures as Towson could simply not keep pace.
Towson has underperformed at times this season because of their lack of quality guard play. Their offense has looked stagnant at times as a result. While they do have a special talent in Jerrelle Benimon down low, feeding him the ball in iso opportunities hasn’t always worked out that well.
Towson put up 1.03 PPP in the first go around, but they also turned it over 17 times in a game that well exceeded 70 possessions. Playing at that sort of tempo is not what Pat Skerry and his Tigers want to do, and so it’ll be interesting to see if they can turn the tables as this game heads to Maryland.
The Tigers last six home games have played to the following possession totals: 61, 69, 62, 64, 55 and 56. They are 5-1 during that stretch of conference games and have slightly reduced their offensive turnover percentage in that span as well. They open here as home favorites of three points with the total set at 151.5.
While Towson likes to play slow, they also are atrocious defensively, ranking 234 in overall efficiency on that end. They do a great job of getting to the free throw line because of how interior oriented their attack is. Delaware, on the other hand, relies a bit more on the perimeter shot to generate scoring.
Despite Towson’s overall question marks on defense, they are ranked inside the top 45 in both two point and three point defensive field goal percentage. That looks impressive until you realize they have only played six teams in the top 100 in the RPI all year long and play inside a conference in the CAA that really doesn’t have many standout offensive clubs.
This should be a really interesting game based on style differentials as noted. With the current spread offered, there could be some value on Delaware just based on the fact that this is not an easy match-up for Towson. Their sluggish style bodes well for most CAA opponents and, even though this is a revenge game, it still plays to Delaware’s advantage for the most part.
But two things deter me from fully backing the Hens. For one, they aren’t receiving a great number. I had this spread at Towson -1.5 should both teams be at full strength. The earlier suspension of two Delaware starters in Jarvis Threatt and Marvin King-Davis could also play a major factor here and is a primary reason the number sits at three as opposed to close to PK.
More importantly is the rebounding advantage Towson enjoyed in that first game. They dominated the glass by a count of 50-33 and hauled in 19 offensive rebounds against a Delaware team that accumulated 28 fouls, often in plus one situations while trying to defend their own boards. Losing King-Davis has yet to really hamper them in the win loss column, but it could become a bigger storyline here given his importance to their already week glass game.
Rebounds rarely win games, but should Towson be able to slow this game down to their liking and play a more fundamental tempo (a potentially strong possibility given Threatt’s absence), it could cause issues for a Delaware team which has more or less had its way when it comes to style.
The Hens are the sixth fastest team nationally and have played 8 of their past 11 at 70 possessions or more. Regardless of their point situation, they are still going to look to push, and defensive fatigue given a significantly downsized rotation also makes the under a risky potentiality.
However, many of the errors made by Towson in that first game were in the half court and the result of poor passing by virtually every team member. That is likely to continue, but it might not aide Delaware in pushing the pace as much as they probably need to win it here, especially if the Tigers can simply tone it down a notch in that regard.
I don’t see much value in this game in terms of side or total, but this is an interesting match-up as it should tell us a lot about Delaware. This is a decent basketball team that can score at will and, should they make it out of the CAA, they could possess some upset potential in the NCAA tournament.
Determining their actual value as a team moving forward could in many ways hinge upon their bench’s efforts tonight. They need to show they can at least play seven bodies and limit the Tigers on the glass here. I expect Towson to win, but Delaware is a team not worth doubting right now.
