A critical battle between two SEC teams with NCAA tournament aspirations will take place at 3 P.M. today. The Volunteers of Tennessee have to come off a tough home loss to Florida and go into Missouri to play a team that is looking to gain some momentum following a big home win over Arkansas earlier in the week.
Missouri has been lackluster this year thanks to some questionable defense and some underwhelming performances against a few SEC bottom feeders. They sit at 5-6 in conference despite being 17-7 overall.
But the rest of their schedule is beyond manageable and they could kick start a strong season-ending run with a win today. For Tennessee, they are in a seemingly similar position given that they too have settled into mediocrity (15-9 overall but 6-5 in conference play) despite having a sizable amount of talent on their roster.
These two are constructed quite differently. While Cuonzo Martin’s club only has one true point guard and only one other guard who plays sizable minutes, Missouri is stacked at the position thanks to the presence of the three headed monster that is Jordan Clarkson, Jabari Brown and Earnest Ross.
Clarkson is a match-up nightmare for whom Tennessee might not have an answer for. At the same time, Missouri is not great on the interior and their inability to protect the rim cost them opportunities to beat both Kentucky and Florida.
Only two teams nationally rebound the ball better on the offensive end than Tennessee, and Missouri’s rebounding metrics overall are pretty mediocre. Missouri does have three guys who can compete with the Vols’ interior in Ryan Rosburg, Tony Criswell and Johnathan Williams.
Williams might be the most important piece to the puzzle today. He is a 6’9 freshman with great athleticism but has had major difficulty staying on the floor and out of foul trouble. There have been performances, however, in which he has at times dominated the boards and he will need to be a factor here given what Tennessee brings to the table.
This sprwad opened at 2 and has since settled in at 2.5 on most sites. Some advanced metric systems indicate that is close to a pick’em. Regardless ofwhere you feel the spread should be, I like this game situationally for Missouri.
Their potency to play more up tempo could cause the thin Tennessee guard lineup some problems. Dictating tempo with Clarkson and company could dispel the ability of Tennessee to fully control this game inside.
Additionally, Missouri gets the free throw line quite a bit. They rank 22nd nationally in FTA/ FGA. The Vols are really good defensively and do not let their opposition get to the line often. But they are also terrible when it comes to defending the three, and that could play a major role here.
I look for a tight game down the stretch, with Missouri pulling away late and winning relatively comfortably. Coming off Florida will be difficult for Tennessee and you have to love the fact that superior guard play combined with home court advantage usually translates to wins, especially late in the season. Late game possessions in a tight game are dictated by guards and, as long as Missouri’s front line does not get dominated here, look for the tigers to get a massive win.
Missouri -2
