Missouri beat Arkansas on the road a little over two weeks ago and now gets to take on this Razorbacks team at home. Missouri, however, has lost three in a row since that outing and is in desperate need of a win to get things rolling as they try and finish up the conference slate in a positive manner.
The first match-up was interesting in the sense that Missouri turned it over 19 times against Arkansas pressure, yet won the game. Despite the turnovers, the Tigers were able to dictate tempo and the game finished at the very average possession figure of 69 as opposed to something larger.
Missouri’s recent string of losses came at the hands of Kentucky, @ Florida and @ Ole Miss. The Mississippi loss was frustrating for a Missouri team which scored 53 second half points and closed what had been a large gap earlier on in the first half before falling by three. Their dynamic guard combo logged heavy minutes in that game as they have in general in the last month.
Another major factor in that first game was rebounding. Arkansas grabbed only 28 boards for the entire game while Missouri pulled in 42, including 16 on the offensive end. While the Tigers’ front line has been suspect in match-ups against the Gators and Wildcats, it had little disruption in dismantling the undersized Arkansas forwards here.
Arkansas needs to play up and down here to be successful, and I think they are fully capable of that here. The Tigers prefer to play up tempo as well, but they tried to slow things down a bit in the first match-up as a result of depth issues. Those depth issues become more problematic as they are coming off a difficult stretch heading into this game and also often depend on perimeter scoring for much of their offense at times.
I have this spread at five (along with most odds makers) with the Tigers playing the role of home favorite. Missouri is only 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite, but the Razorbacks are only 1-4 SU on the road and 1-3 as a road dog ATS. This situation is not beneficial in backing either team, but I would look at a potential 1H under as a possible value position.
As mentioned Missouri will likely look at play as slow as possible. The first match-up ended at 146, falling short of the full game total of 150. The first half saw a 36-34 score, with balanced scoring in the second half relative to the full game.
But, most importantly, is that these two come off pretty wild and high scoring games and the Tigers do not have great depth. Keep that in mind as you attempt to handicap any under play, but I’d look for a 1H figure right around 71/72. Anything larger than that could pose value for that under.
