The Hoosiers opened as high as six point dogs on some sites for this game, butt he number moved down to 4.5 quickly last night and it has since settled in that viscidity.
Indiana is six days removed from a monumental home win against Michigan which served as the Wolverines’ first conference loss of the year. Minnesota, conversely, is streaking in the wrong direction as they come off a 3OT loss against Purdue. That game marked their third loss in as many tries and dropped them to 4-6 in the conference.
Minnesota had early success in this season thanks to a strong offense predicated upon the presence of a nice trio of guards. Power forward Maurice Walker has also come on as of late. He had strong performances in their three recent losses and has averaged 20 plus minutes over the last five games.
But the Gophers were sloppy with the basketball in West Lafayette and Indiana features defensive quickness out front that exceeds that of the Boilers. The key for them here relies on their ability to pound the ball inside to Walker and fellow forward Joey King, rather than simply relying on the long ball and settling for perimeter alternatives.
King played 47 minutes at Purdue off the bench and is a consummate team leader who gives strong effort. Minnesota under Richard Pitino has become a more up tempo group that looks to push the ball, but they would be better suited in settling things down and working the ball inside to their front court far more often than they do.
That strategy, however, might not work out so well in this game as the Hoosiers counter with a superb front line themselves. Noah Vonleh is a special young player and their is no Gopher on this roster who will likely succeed in containing him.
The Hoosiers are a top ten unit in offensive rebounding and that does not bode well for a Minnesota team that struggles on the defensive boards in addition to regularly offering zone looks on that end. The Gophers also shoot it a ton from deep and Indiana ranks 12th nationally in defending the perimeter.
On the flip side, the real issue in this game for Tom Crean will be avoiding sloppy play themselves. As mentioned, Pitino wants to play the game like his dad does, and that could work well here as few teams in Division 1 turn it over more often than Indiana. Minnesota will look to pressure the Hoosier back court, but they need to attack the basket often in this game and force the Hoosiers bigs into foul trouble.
Ultimately, I see some value on the Hoosiers but would need a bigger number to play them here. Minnesota is at a bit of a situational disadvantage, but they will also be playing for their lives in trying to break a three game losing streak at home.
Their ability to dictate the guard match-ups should bode well for them and, despite the Hoosiers looking strong in the role of underdog in recent months, I can’t bite on them at the given spread.
