The Friars 3 P.M. match-up with the Musketeers will mark yet another rematch in the Big East. These two first saw each other on January 25, with Providence winning an exciting ball game, 81-72.
That game hit a total in excess of 150 despite only being played at 67 possessions, a result great enhanced by the Friars going to the free throw line a whopping 30 times. They did not settle for the perimeter option and they attacked the Xavier front court in a manner that proved quite successful.
Moving into this game today, I wouldn’t expect the Friars to get as many calls on the road. While they are the number one team nationally in free throw percentage, they rank only 184 in FTA/FGA. That sort of figure means its unlikely they will see as many trips to the line in any road spot, especially against a good and revengeful Musketeers team here.
Ed Cooley and Co. open as a 6.5 point road dog here and that’s a relatively fair assessment. Providence has proved weak on the road this season and their overall lack of depth is beginning to catch up to them as they have dropped two of three heading into a two game road excursion beginning today. While both these teams are quite even and actually similar in makeup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this rematch play to an 8-11 point differential as evidenced in the first one, especially with free throws working into the equation.
The more interesting aspect to this game is its total, a figure currently posting at 139.5 on most sites. That is a three point increase relative to the 136 attached to the first battle. and, while Xavier is not what I would call a “slow” team, their last five home games have played to the following possession totals: 61, 63, 67, 68, 63.
Looking at the box score from that first go around in even greater detail, you’ll see that neither bench offered much in terms of support throughout the game. Myles Davis provides greater guard depth than what Providence has while the Musketeers do not have a bench presence in the mold of seven foot Friar center Carson Desrosiers either.
While neither group is all that comfortable extending significant minutes to more than six bodies that could affect the game in one of several ways. Most assume that depth issues typically enhance under potential as both clubs simply don’t have the scoring top to bottom to get them to the final number.
But lack of depth also decreases defensive efficiency. Both these teams are rested for this game, having had somewhere between 5-6 days off. But with the way they can get to the line, this current value is pretty fair. I look for both teams to come out aggressive and attack the basket.
Keep an eye on this one here. It should be a fantastic match-up. Should the opening half yield an off-balance figure relative to the total, a second half play could be warranted as I do see both clubs regressing back toward this figure.
