For anyone who watched the classic that was the San Diego State comeback on Wednesday night, the loss had to be crippling for a Boise team that led by as many as 14 midway through the second half. they dominated for the better portion of the game, but failed to pick up what would have been a massive win.
But the stretch run of that game illustrated some legitimate concerns for the Broncos as they enter Logan, Utah for this one here. They tend to depend on the three ball a bit too much at times and they also struggle to defend it. Those are major concerns given that USU ranks 2nd nationally in 3P%.
Utah State is 3-7 in conference play and is coming off a tough stretch. They lost to SDSU in overtime back on January 25 and then dropped another one at home just days later against Kendall Williams and New Mexico. The stylistic differences they had to deal with doomed them from the start against an underrated Wyoming team in their following game, but they responded well in turning the tables on Nevada.
Boise is a stronger club than the Wolfpack, but they do have some similarities in the way they are constructed. Utah State is a bad defensive ball club, but they are a tough out at home and need this game to have any prayer in making a run down the stretch of the MWC season.
Most metrics point toward this being a pick ’em, but the Aggies are laying two thanks to their being at home and having the luxury of catching Boise off the thriller against the Aztecs. Utah State has turned things round and I like this match-up for them.
These two clubs met in Boise just two weeks ago in what amounted to a 78-74 win for the Broncos. One major factor in that outcome was the play of Ryan Watkins. The 6’9 senior pulled down 10 offensive boards in that win. I view that performance as a bit of an anomaly considering Stew Morrill’s team is a top 30 defensive rebounding unit.
The Aggies did a good job of defending swingman Anthony Drmic and limited the effectiveness of stud guard Derrick Marks as well. Should they prove capable of containing Watkins on the boards here, they will win this game.
The Aggies are a veteran club that had high hopes coming into the season. They are getting a discounted number and I look for them to start to heat up here as they try to salvage what is left of a season that went downhill during conference play.
Utah State -2
