In what will be yet another intriguing Big Ten rematch, John Beilein’s team heads to Iowa as five point dogs. Fran McCaffery and company will look to right the ship and avoid a third straight home loss in this one.
Michigan’s interior without Mitch McGary has been serviceable to this point in time. the Jordan Morgan/Jon Horford combo has provided quality defense and consummate “role player” intangibles. But winning this one on the road will require a lot more than just that.
Iowa has a deep and aggressive crop of forwards/centers. They also run a ton of sets that feature their forwards going toward the basket on curl cuts and option reads that encourage them to get to the rim. Michigan could well struggle to contain that sort of pounding in this one without getting into foul trouble down low.
Additionally, this Wolverines team has the look of a group that simply has to cool off. They caught Wisconsin at the right time when they beat them in Madison and their win over MSU on the road came thanks in large part to the Spartans being without two key forwards.
This is a very good team, but they sit at 9-1 in conference and that is simply unsustainable given the strength of the Big Ten from top to bottom. Iowa has revenge on their minds and they will be beyond focused in defending their home floor here. They are number 13 nationally in defending the three point shot and that will help them against a Michigan team that features three deadly perimeter options and a borderline dependency on hitting from downtown.
I tend to like the Hawkeyes here and would look to parlay their money line, but I do not have enough faith in them to believe they’ll cover the figure of five. The key to this game could be the point guard match-up. Mike Gessell has been solid but unspectacular and Derrick Walton is still trying to find his way within the scope of this offense.
If Walton can control that match-up and frustrate Gessell, it could go a long way toward a sweep for Beilein’s team. But I don’t know that Walton is good enough yet and I definitely do not trust the Michigan front court depth enough to contemplate a play on them. Look for Iowa to rebound and get back in the win column thanks to a gutsy home effort.
