North Carolina heads to South Bend for the first ever ACC showdown between two storied programs. The Tar Heels own a four game win streak, but three of those four came at home and the lone road win came at the hands of a Georgia Tech team that is simply not equipped to compete with them.
Roy Williams’ club has looked much better than their 1-4 conference start would have indicated just a few weeks ago. Their front court and overall size and length are difficult to match-up with and the Irish have historically struggled with elite athletic clubs such as this one.
Mike Brey’s Fighting Irish team is one of the worst defensive units in the new look ACC, but they do rebound well on the defensive end and that should benefit them here. They also play a slower tempo than what Carolina is used to, and they have the point guard play in senior Eric Atkins to likely control the overall tempo.
Carolina has not seen steady point play during their recent run of success, and that could be the difference in a game that oddsmakers initially identified as a pick ’em, although the line has shifted to UNC -1 on some sites. It’s hard to argue with that prognosis. Carolina is the better team, but the game is seemingly a toss up given the Irish’ strong record at home and propensity to get up for these big match-ups as they did earlier in the year with Duke. They nearly fell to B.C. last Sunday and that should have them on high alert for tip off here.
The key to this game could well come down to the Irish bigs. Garrick Sherman, Zach Auguste and Tom Knight are not as athletic as their counterparts in this game, but they are crafty. Sherman, in particular, works well when operating out of the high block area. He could be a tough match-up for any of UNC’s interior options.
While James Michael McAdoo has the quickness to keep pace with Sherman, he is not a great defender. Forcing him to take that cover could limit his effectiveness on the offensive end as well.
One other important note heading into this one is that UNC will play Duke on Wednesday night. Given the strength of this conference and the perceived difficulty of this game to go along with he fact the Heels are only 5-4 in conference would lead one to believe that they have literally no right to look ahead, but you never really know as to how college kids will respond.
Still, this is going to be a difficult game for McAdoo and company. They have the athletes to give N.D. problems, but they need Nate Britt and Marcus Paige along with these other guards need to contain the Irish shooters and also make quality decisions on offense. Brey’s club isn’t great defensively, but the UNC shot selection has been questionable this year and that could kill them in this spot.
I’d likely think that there will be a bit more money on UNC given how strong they have looked recently. If the Irish were to be catching something north of 1.5/2 points here, I’d probably play. The current spread offers no value to me now, although this should be one of the better early games played Saturday.
