Two teams who have gone in surprisingly different directions meet up in Logan, UT on Wednesday. The Wolfpack of Nevada were not supposed to do much in this conference, but have instead opened up with a 7-2 conference mark thanks to great guard play.
Utah State, on the other hand, expected big things but have seen their season derailed due to a handful of injuries and absolutely horrific play on the road. They have won only two road games on the year and those came back in mid-November.
Fortunately for them here, the Aggies get to play this one in Utah and that is a big plus. They have lost five in a row, but they do have Kyle Davis finally healthy after he missed the SDSU game back on the 25th of January. Davis’ return to the lineup did not help much against New Mexico and Wyoming.
But the plus side of those losses is that both clubs were far more defensive minded than the one they face off against here. Nevada plays virtually no defense and they are guard centric in the same mold as USU.
While statistical data indicates that the Aggies should be no more than 3.5-4 point favorites, they have opened laying six. This is a serious indication that oddsmakers feel Nevada;s luck is due to run out and that a backloaded schedule could begin to haunt them starting Wednesday.
Still, I can’t justify taking this USU team at the current number. These two met back on January 11, and the Wolfpack put forth an excellent defensive effort not typical of their nature. They held USU to just .87 PPP and were able to win the game despite USU pulling down 21 offensive rebounds on the road.
Utah State had a miserable time trying to score the ball and virtually no one else chipped in aside from Jared Shaw, who finished with 19 that night on 7-20 shooting from the floor.
While Utah’s guards are good shooters, they struggle to create on their own and they had difficulty in getting good looks against an athletic guard tandem of Deonte Burton and Michael Perez.
I expect USU to win this game and feel like this is a good time to sell high on the Wolfpack. They have outplayed their expectations thus far this year, but this is a tough number to buy the Aggies at.
Also, Ronnie Stevens, a talented 6’7, 230 lbs power forward for Nevada, could be back in the lineup tonight. The junior college transfer had provided quality minutes off the bench riot to going down with an injury on December 10. While conditioning could be a factor, he could also help on the glass and with depth concerns for this club in the near term.
Wait to see what type of movement this line induces before biting, but I do like the Aggies in this scenario for the most part. Still, six is too steep a price at this time.
