The A-10 conference has been quite underrated and this year is no different. The Bonnies from upstate New York have come on strong this year to give the conference an added sense of depth, and they will look to build on recent momentum when they head to Virginia to do battle with Richmond.
The Bonnies come off an enormous home win over UMass. That one was much needed given the fact they fell at bottom feeder Duquesne the previous Saturday. Their three other conference losses came at UMass and St. Louis (by a combined 11 points) along with an eight point defeat at the hands of George Washington.
The common denominator in many of those losses was that the Bonnies went up against a stingier and often more athletic defense than what they feature. Richmond is very much cut from a similar cloth and, despite their youth, they are an emerging club within the conference.
Richmond has some issues offensively, but they do have a veteran lead guard in Cedrick Lindsay. Lindsay has helped navigate this offense well enough to place it into the top 50 when it comes to turnover efficiency. He has also played 30+ minutes in all but one game this year and has not turned the ball over more than four times in any one game.
Lindsay provides a nice offset to Bonaventure’s senior point, Charlon Kloof. Kloof is a steady competitor who also provides great leadership for his team. He is joined in the backcourt by fellow senior Matthew Wright, and the two guards provide a more steady offense than what Richmond has.
But the Bonnies do not have a lead point man as both their seniors are more combo guards than pure floor leaders. Both defenses have been effective at creating turnovers this year, but the Bonnies have major issues in terms of protecting the rock, ranking only 219 in turnover efficiency themselves.
That is concerning, as is the fact that Richmond plays a generally slower tempo than what Bonaventure is used to. Duquesne was able to slow down the pace and it enabled them to pull out a victory. Other than that game, the Bonnies last 11 games have been played in the upper 60’s when it comes to possessions.
Those factors make Richmond an intriguing wager especially given the fact that the opening number of 2.5 dropped down to 1 (and has since come back up slightly to 1.5) But the big turn off when it comes to backing them here relates to their issues on the defensive boards. They rank 256 nationally in defensive rebound efficiency. The Bonnies are one of the top 20 units on the offensive end, and that could create trouble here.
Richmond is receiving heavy support (close to 70% in terms of spread bets) and that is another turn off when it comes to evaluating this game as the public has decided they are the correct play. I find there to be some value on the Spiders at home, but this is a tough game to gage and the Bonnies are playing good ball right now.
Richmond is 1-0 ATS this year when coming off two or more ATS road losses, which is the situation they find themselves in now. They are also 1-1 against the number as a home favorite of 3 or less.
Bonaventure is two for their last two as a road dog and has covered in three of the last four such scenarios overall.
Look for a tight game that could be very indicative of how deep into the conference tournament these two clubs can go. Making a run at the championship will require them to gut out a tough game or two, and both should likely have a warm-up session here on Wednesday night.
