A battle of two proud Midwestern programs will take place tonight when the Golden Eagles take on the Butler Bulldogs in a battle of Big East programs both in need of a win.
While Butler has struggled immensely in getting out to a 2-7 start in conference play, Marquette has a 4-5 mark and sits at 12-10 overall. This game opened last night with a spread of 6.5 and has since been bet up to 7, with spread bets split basically down the middle at close to a 50-50 split.
At first glance, this looks like it has the potential to be a real grinder between two teams that both tend to struggle offensively. Both groups have posted considerably better defensive metrics this season, and they have utilized that sort of brand to frustrate opponents.
Butler took the first meeting between these clubs, a 69-57 overtime affair that saw the Bulldogs put three starters in double figures. Butler went to the line 29 times in that game and got the win despite making only 15 free throws.
Shooting has been a primary downfall for Butler all year. While they do take care of the ball and possess one of the better turnover efficiency numbers in America, they simply struggle to find consistency when it comes to virtually every other scoring related piece of data.
Marquette is similar in that regard, although their win over Providence last week was extremely promising. They finally got Jamil Wilson to provide a decent outburst and were also aided by Todd Mayo’s eight points off the bench. Four different reserves scored for Marquette, and Davante Gardner was extremely reliable in the middle.
Gardner played 42 minutes the first time these teams met, a ridiculous amount of playing time for a guy who typically only sees the floor for about 20-25 minutes on any given night. He finished with 17 points but it came on 6-16 shooting, amounting to perhaps his least efficient performance of the season.
Kameron Woods is a long-armed, 6’9 junior with great defensive instincts, and he proved a difficult match-up for Gardner the first time around. Woods finished with 16 points and 14 rebounds in that game, and Buzz Williams’ squad simply struggled to score with consistency on the interior.
Jamil Wilson went 3-8 from downtown in that first game. While his scoring was much needed and his shooting percentage from three a decent percentage, his attempting eight three balls was discouraging. Marquette ranks 330 in three point shooting efficiency, and they aren’t going to beat too many people from out there.
Williams’ team has gone 18-2 ATS in the first half when coming off a SU loss the previous game, and that will be the case again here. I expect Marquette to come out fired up, and that should be beneficial for them. They actually held a six point lead at the half in the first go around with Butler.
This current spread seems pretty fair and doesn’t present a sizable amount of value on the dog, but should Butler get down early, I’d look to play them in the second half. They know how to deal with this sort of club, and their defense got better with time when they first met.
Marquette is at home, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they were able to grab a double digit win here, but I also believe Butler knows how to play in this match-up and it’s unlikely they allow themselves to buried in too big of a hole as the game progresses.
