The big day is almost here. Fire up the grill and get ready to view some presumably weird commercials.
Marshawn Lynch is not talking, but we are. We want to break down the 48th version of the Super Bowl for you and help you make the most informed gambling decisions possible… so pay attention.
Super Bowl XLVIII pits an aging legend against a second year quarterback who is listed at below six foot. Peyton Manning vs. Russell Wilson will be one of many story-lines heading into this game, and it will be beyond interesting to see how both QB’s stack up against the opposition.
For Manning, this will be his third go around on the game’s biggest stage. It will be an opportunity for him to once and for all cement his legacy as a postseason legend, something that most feel he is not despite widely being regarded as the best regular season QB ever.
But for Peyton to take home the Vince Lombardi trophy for a second time, he will likely want to continue his reliance on a run game that has been a serious revelation all year. Knowshon Moreno, a New Jersey native, has helped the Broncos achieve the 10th most efficient rush attack according to Football Outsiders.
Seattle, on the flip side of the equation, has the league’s number one overall defense, but what makes them special is the way they defend the pass. While they completely manhandled the San Francisco ground game from the running back position two weeks ago, they have been susceptible at times this year.
Both of New Orleans primary backs, Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, averaged over 4.4 yards per carry in the divisional round. Andre Ellington had a decent day against them back in week 16 when the Cards beat Seattle on the road despite four Carson Palmer interceptions.
Moreno features quickness and north-south explosion comparable to what both Robinson and Ellington brought to the table. Additionally, the interior of Denver’s line has been special all year. Zane Beadles, Manny Ramirez and Louis Vasquez are all athletic and physical players who provide this offense with more substance and toughness than a prototypical pass-heavy offense would otherwise have.
Seattle has great defensive line depth, but if you attack their tackles you can churn out yards against them. Denver will no doubt use a balanced attack in going at this defense, but it won’t take away from what they can do through the air. To win this game, they need to score touchdowns in the red zone. That will require Manning to take over closer to the goal posts regardless of how they get the ball down the field.
The Broncos are not the sort of downfield throwing team their numbers indicate. Following the loss of Ryan Clady at left tackle, Manning began to incorporate more three and five step drops into his game-plan, a tendency that has been made more feasible with the addition of Wes Welker on this year’s roster. Add in the potential for wind in this stadium and some of the match-ups they could enjoy, and I’d expect to see a lot of the short passing tendencies we’ve become accustomed to following Manning’s neck surgery.
Welker should have match-ups in this game as the Seahawks will likely use Richard Sherman on Demaryius Thomas and could also flank Byron Maxwell on Eric Decker. The loss of Brandon Browner leaves them thin beyond those top two spots. DeShawn Shead and Jeremy Lane are promising young players at the position, but neither has the ability to stay with Welker for 60 minutes.
I would not be surprised to see Seattle use a decent amount of zone/man combinations the enable linebackers the opportunity to jam Welker at the point of attack. Malcolm Smith and Bruce Irvin have no business actually covering the crafty veteran, but if they can re-route him, it could force Manning into misreads.
By now everyone understands that a big key to beating quarterbacks like Manning, Brady, Brees, etc. is to mix up your pre-snap show compared to what you actually do. You can’t go with one plan of attack all the way through the play, and I fully expect Seattle to mix things up here.
Regardless of strategies, one major challenge for Seattle will be defending the tight end position. Julius Thomas is a monster of an athlete and Manning has upped his targets to the 6’5, third year player from Portland State during these playoffs.
While New England has smaller safeties who are built on quickness, Seattle at least has a specimen who should be able to physical hang with Thomas. Kam Chancellor has proven his worth as a pass defender, and he could see a lot of the Denver tight end in this game. He is 6’3, 232 and can hit like a bull.
Jacob Tamme is also a guy Manning has a tremendous amount of comfort with. Although he lacks any real explosion after the catch, Manning could be inclined to use some two tight ends sets if the pass rush is getting to him early.
Early on in the year, Denver was putting up video game like numbers and moving the football with ease through the air. After some slip-ups midseason, they revised their strategy and had a more balanced approach that was fixated on longer, more methodical drives. They have to focus on simply moving the chains here, and finding mismatches won’t be necessarily easy.
But the biggest key to Denver’s success as an offense and Seattle’s opportunities to negate them might just lie within the clock management abilities of Pete Carroll’s offense. The power run game headlined by the aforementioned Lynch is widely assumed to be the biggest weapon in enabling Russell Wilson and Co. to stay on the field longer while Manning works the sideline.
But Denver actually finished the season ninth in the NFL against the run. San Diego was really the only team to successfully pound it on Denver all season. The interior of their line is headlined by two very good tackles in former North Carolina Tar Heel Sylvester Williams and fifth year pro Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton.
Knighton finished the AFC title game with four tackles and one sack, which are excellent numbers for a defensive tackle. The Temple product is very athletic for his size and was a handpicked free agent from Jacksonville who provides yet another great example of a tremendous personnel move made by “Executive Vice President of Football Operations” John Elway.
Whatever the title afforded to the legendary quarterback, there is one thing that is for certain: he has been instrumental in assembling a great football club from top to bottom. Derek Wolfe (who is on IR currently), Danny Trevathan and Malik Jackson are all defensive starters for this club. They are all also products of a 2012 NFL Draft class that Elway played a massive role in assembling. Additionally, the first pick Elway ever made was Von Miller, and that hasn’t turned out to badly so far.
But the leader of this defense has been Wesley Woodyard, an un-drafted middle linebacker from Kentucky who is as fearless as they come. Woodyard hails from LaGrange, Georgia and has “country tough” written all over him.
Woodyard has great instincts and quickness within the hole. A bit undersized at 6’0, 233, he makes up for it with superb athleticism. It will be his job to locate Lynch and perhaps also spy Wilson at times in this game.
But covering this Denver defense would be unjust without touching upon a secondary that includes their longtime leader and one of the greatest to ever play the CB position. Champ Bailey has been plagued by injuries in recent seasons, but when he is on the field he is as savvy as it gets. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a special talent who, at 27 years old, is in the prime of his career.
While everyone is expecting Seattle to pound the rock quite a bit, I do look for them to open it up a bit and challenge Denver’s secondary. The Broncos struggled against the pass all year, finishing 21st in that area.
It is painfully apparent that Quentin Jammer is past his prime. Tony Carter is not a bad option at the dime position, but losing Chris Harris, Jr. could really sting in this game. It did not matter much against a weak New England receiving corps, but Seattle has better options than people realize.
Seattle does not get credit for its passing game, but their scheme as an offense in total is not designed to throw it a lot. Golden Tate has proven to be consistent all season, and Doug Baldwin has stepped up big every time he is asked to.
Zach Miller is also another interesting component to this aerial attack. The 7th year pro has been extremely quiet this season. He came on a bit with three big catches in the NFL title game, however, and he has had himself big playoff games in the past.
Miller went for 142 yards on eight catches and a touchdown against Atlanta in the divisional round back in 2013. If Denver is worried about Wilson getting outside the pocket, it could tie up their linebackers and enable Miller availability on underneath routes.
Denver’s starting safeties are Duke Ihenacho and Mike Adams. Adams, a Paterson, NJ native, is a veteran presence in his tenth season. Ihenacho is a second year guy starting this game only because Rahim Moore was forced to IR this season.
Moore was an immensely talented prospect from UCLA who was the second round pick of Denver in 2011. He had struggled at times during his first two seasons, but he possesses excellent physicality and would have helped in dealing with Miller and others in this game.
And then there is the threat of Percy Harvin. While not a factor at all this season due to a multitude of injuries, Harvin is a dynamic talent who was very aggressive when on the field in the New Orleans game. He had several massive games in championship environments while at the University of Florida, and he will bring his hard hat to this one without question.
The pressure he will place upon the Denver defensive coaches is something that has to be considered. He might not have a massive statistical day, but he is capable of making a play or two that could really help the ‘Hawks here.
Ultimately, this game has a ton going on within it and no one will know for sure as to how each offense will choose to attack the opponent. Denver is as good of an offense as we’ve seen in a long time and they have the veteran quarterback presence in this game.
They probably deserve to be a slight favorite in this game. After opening at PK, this line gradually shot up to Denver -2.5 and even three on some offshore books. It settled around 2.5/2 and is basically 2.5 at every major Vegas casino.
But offshore books have reigned it back to 2 and even 1.5 in some cases. Prior to the conference title round, Denver would have likely been a 1 point favorite over either Seattle or San Francisco. The way they beat an undermanned and overrated New England team appeased to many fans, and the public has hounded them to the point where Vegas has had little choice but to elevate the number.
Given the way the public perceives these Broncos, there is legitimate value on Seattle. We attempted to dig into various match-ups and statistics for you within the scope of this preview, but the bottom line is this: the league’s number one offense has met the number one defense in this game six times, with the defensive minded group coming out the winner in five of those battles.
There is something to be said about having the legendary quarterback versus a guy probably in over his head. But Wilson is primed to have a big game here. His opponent is not the type of defense that should be expected to give him problems given their inability to contain the edge without Von Miller on the field, and he has a hungry stable of weapons to lean on.
Additionally, I expect Seattle to be the looser club. When Pete Carroll was forced out of the NFL head coaching ranks back in 1999, he might never have envisioned the possibility of returning to this league and leading a team to the biggest of games.
But the Bay Area native is a psychological mastermind, and he has enabled this team the freedom to be what it chooses to be. They have the ability to frustrate Manning here and, while I expect a tight game, I do not feel as if the Seahawks warrant being 2.5 point underdogs, regardless of what everyone else seemingly thinks.
SEATTLE +3 (B ½ – 130)
