Randy Bennett has another strong team out in northern California and their 6-2 conference record is indicative of that. They have won their last four and are 4th nationally in 3P shooting.
The Gaels feature five players all averaging in double figures. They don’t have a player of former point man Matthew Dellavadova’s significance, but guards Stephen Holt, Kerry Carter and James Walker III all shoot better than 40% from deep.
Add in the abilities of center Brad Waldow and forward Beau Levesque and its easy to see why the opposition has had difficulty stopping this club.
But this team has only four wins against the top 100 and only one against the top 50. That win came back in their season opener against Louisiana Tech which was a home bout. They have ask lost to the likes of South Carolina, Hawaii and George Mason as well as Santa Clara.
This game Thursday will be down in sunny San Diego and will come against a club that has been playing very well lately. Outside of a demolition at the hands of BYU back on January 4, the Toreros have been extremely competitive in the last month.
They recently lost by three up in Spokane in a game which came down to the wire and followed that up with a win at Portland, a legitimate accomplishment given the struggles BYU and Gonzaga had in that building against the Pilots.
San Diego is 44th nationally in shooting the three and they are above average in defending it. Johnny Dee is an ultra quick point guard who is very talented and Christopher Anderson, while only 5’7, fits the same mold. They have four players in total averaging double figures and in many ways mirror their opponent here.
The Toreros enjoy playing at an extremely slow tempo. The last four USD games have been played at the following possession totals: 64, 56, 57 and 61. SMC comes off a 75 possession outing against Loyola Marymount, and their two prior match-ups went to 68 and 67 possessions, respectively. While they do enjoy playing slow as well (304 nationally in adjusted tempo), this game should likely be a considerable contrast to what they just saw.
They will also have to hope that the aforementioned Waldow can hold up in this game. 6’11 senior center Dennis Kramer of USD has been playing quite well for Bill Grier’s club.
He has been able to mostly stay out of foul trouble recently with the exception of the San Francisco game and he has the length to disrupt Waldow’s tendencies.
Additionally, the speed of the Torero guards has historically been problematic for stud guard Stephen Holt as he has had some of his worst career outings against the Toreros. The 6’4 senior only mustered six points in 23 minutes the first time they played last year, had eight points on 1-7 shooting in the second game had just three on 1-7 shooting in the WCC semi’s in Vegas last March.
Speaking of history, there is a lot of it between these two. That WCC semi-final game went to overtime and saw Torero guards Dee and Christopher Anderson combine for 29 points. The three point loss for USD was a considerable improvement when compared to their 81-48 drubbing up in Moraga earlier on.
Their quickness and speed gave the Gael guards trouble and Bennett’s club banked on a 23 point performance from Waldow in order to get the win.
Bennett’s club has not lost to USD since February 16, 2011. There is little doubt that Grier’s club will be amped going into this one and they have great momentum as they come off the Portland win. There is always value on a home dog, and I look for the Toreros’ mostly young club to grow up a bit on Thursday night.
This spread opens with the Gaels as four point favorites, and roughly 75-80 percent of the betting public appears to be backing SMC. It’s possible that this number goes higher, but I plan on taking stake in the four as of now and possibly adding more later should the number improve.
San Diego +4
