Horizon league action features an interesting game between one of the conference’s elite squads and a middle of the pack club when Valpo welcomes in Green Bay tonight.
The Phoenix are 17-3 and two of their three blemishes were to Wisconsin and Harvard by a combined 15 points. They have the number 34 offense in America and have been excellent on the offensive boards to boot. Aside from an overtime scare at Milwaukee, they have yet to really be threatened in conference play.
The Crusaders sit at 4-3 in conference play and could really use a win here. A talented club, Valpo has really struggled on the defensive end. they do rebound well on the offensive end and get to the free throw line with regularity which should benefit them here tonight.
Tempo will be of the utmost importance here as Valpo is more of a slow it down sort of team while the Phoenix like to push and get out in transition.
The current total has been set at 141.5/142. The Green Bay defense has created turnovers at a decent clip and Valpo has one of the worst turnover efficiency numbers in the nation, currently ranking 338 in that category.
Valpo comes off a trip to Cleveland State in which they turned it over 16 times and scored .86 points per possession. That game was to the Crusaders’ liking given that Cleveland State plays slower.
Green Bay enters as only a 2 point favorite and part of that could be due to both Valpo’s success at home and the fact that they have Wright State on deck. G.B. fell to the Raiders twice a season ago, but I can’t see them overlooking a road trip like this one.
The Phoenix are a big public favorite with close to 80% of spread bets coming in on them. You can get them at a discounted number should you choose to go that route, but this will be a tough road outing.
For as much as the pace will be a factor, keep an eye on the big guys in this game. Green Bay comes in with seven footer Alec Brown and 6’9 junior greg Mays. Valpo counters with a talented seven footer in a very talented freshman in Alec Peters and a trio of centers who are all capable of providing minutes.
It’s never easy to take a public squad like this, but Green Bay beat Green Bay three times last year and that is undoubtedly in the minds of many veteran players on this Phoenix roster.
Green Bay -2
